High hopes for 2015

Per the final Social Weather Survey of 2014, 93 percent of adult Filipinos view 2015 with hope, whereas 6 percent view it with fear. SWS has been using this simple hope-versus-fear in the new year item since 2000. It is borrowed from the Allensbach Institute of Germany, which uses it in its annual Christmas card. In the past 25 years, the percentage of Germans hopeful about a coming new year has been at most 60, and sometimes below 40.

Filipinos, however, are a more hopeful people. In the past 15 years, the percentage of hopeful Filipinos has been between 81 (in late 2004) and 95 (twice, in late 2002 and in late 2011). From end-2010 up to now, the percentage has been between 92 and 95. From end-2001 to end-2009—i.e., the time of President Gloria Arroyo—it was 5 times in the 90s and 4 times in the 80s. In late 2000, after President Joseph Estrada had been impeached, it was 87. I propose to call Filipino new-year hopefulness “high” for numbers of 90 or more, “medium” for 80 to 89, and “low” for anything below 80, if it ever happens.

Christmas happiness and New Year hope. Of the 71 percent expecting (when interviewed on Nov. 27 to Dec. 1) their 2014 Christmas to be happy, 95 percent look toward the new year of 2015 with hope.

Of the 24 percent expecting a Christmas neither happy nor sad, 91 percent are hopeful about the new year. However, of the 6 percent expecting a sad Christmas, only 76 percent are hopeful about 2015.

The relevance of poverty to Christmas and New Year. Last week, SWS reported self-rated poverty in its fourth quarter 2014 survey to be 52 percent of families. (Not 52 percent of all adults, since this survey question is directed to the household head, as spokesperson for the family.)

Among self-rated poor families, only 68 percent said their Christmas would be happy.

Twenty-five percent expected it to be neither happy nor sad; 7.5 percent expected it to be sad (versus 5.7 percent among all families).

Among self-rated poor families, 92 percent viewed the new year with hope, whereas 7.5 percent viewed it with fear (versus 6.4 percent among all families).

Thus, among the poor, there were also great majorities looking forward to a happy Christmas in 2014 and hopeful about the new year. These majorities were simply not as high as those of their more fortunate brethren. Yes, poverty matters, but, fortunately for us Filipinos, it does not dampen holiday spirits too much. (Poverty matters much more for general happiness and for satisfaction with life, as future SWS reports will show.)

Analyzing poverty by quarter and by year. For me, it was a relief to see the fourth quarter self-rated poverty percentage at 52, since this was the best showing of 2014, after 53 in the first quarter, 55 in the second quarter, and 55 again in the third quarter. The new SWS poverty report gives 54 percent as the whole-year average for 2014.

I was surprised by the BusinessWorld (BW) headline of Dec. 29, “2014 self-rated poverty worst in 8 years,” since BW customarily emphasizes the news of the latest quarter—which is favorable—rather than of the latest year—which was already known as unfavorable by the earlier three surveys of 2014, and which I wrote about in “Povertyís not falling yet” (Opinion, 5/10/2014), “The state of deprivation” (Opinion, 8/2/2014), and “No inclusivity yet” (Opinion, 11/1/2014).

BW’s phrase “worst in 8 years” is obviously because 2006, eight years ago, was the most recent with an annual average as high as 54 percent. Now, if BW’s intended message was disappointment about poverty reduction, then it should have pointed not only to 2006 but also to 2005 (when the average was 53), and 2004 (when it was 51), and then strengthened its headline to “worst in 10 years.”

With respect to the year-to-year poverty trend, what I wrote in “Povertyís not falling yet” (Opinion, 5/10/2014) is still valid today:

“Based on annual averages, the annual self-rated poverty percentage was flat over 2004-2013 in the range of 48 to 53 [sic—I failed to notice a 54 in 2006]. What Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan has called ‘the lost decade’ is not yet over.”

“It is only from the perspective of several decades that one can see a decline in poverty. The annual self-rated poverty percentage was between 57 and 61 in 1995-2003, after being mostly in the upper 60s during 1986-1994. The history is not one of smooth decline, but of ‘Terraces of poverty’ (Opinion, 11/19/2011).”

The poor rate P-Noy just as highly. To start the year on a pleasant note, let me report that current public satisfaction with the performance of President Noynoy Aquino is unrelated to poverty status.

In the fourth quarter of 2014, among individuals belonging to self-rated poor families, there is 62 percent satisfaction and 25 percent dissatisfaction (i.e., net satisfaction +37) with the performance of P-Noy. Among those from self-rated borderline families, there is 64 percent satisfaction and 21 percent dissatisfaction (net +43); among those from self-rated not-poor families, there is 63 percent satisfaction and 23 percent dissatisfaction (net +40). (The tabulations are thanks to Joanne Evangelista of SWS.)

These satisfaction ratings are essentially the same, all in the category of Good (net +30 to +49). Likewise, the ratings of P-Noy by socioeconomic class (ABC +49, D +37, and E +45).

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Contact mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph