Dutertismo: Beginning of the end?

It turns out, Vice President Sara Duterte is, indeed, a poor copy of her father—a problematic original to begin with. Not only does she lack her father’s spontaneity and wit, she is also far from what the mathematician Nassim Taleb famously described as ”antifragile.” Amid manifold controversies over her conduct in both the Department of Education and as the Vice President of the Philippines, her trust and approval ratings have nosedived—underscoring the absence of the so-called ”Teflon effect.”

Popularity is never a perfect indicator of either political capital or competence. But for the notorious dynasty from Davao, popularity ratings were always their main bragging right. Sara Duterte, however, is now beginning to struggle even in that department.

According to the latest Pulse Asia Survey, which was conducted between Nov. 26 and Dec. 3, Sara Duterte had a net approval rating of only 22 percent. As many as 28 percent of respondents were unhappy with her performance and as many as 22 percent remained undecided. In fact, her barely majority approval rating (50 percent) was mainly due to inelastic support from her home island of Mindanao (80 percent) and relatively high support from Class E or poorest Filipinos (68 percent). Her support in the National Capital Region, the country’s seat of power, is now down to only 34 percent, though slightly higher in Luzon (40 percent).

On a quarterly basis, Sara Duterte’s approval rating was down by 10 percent nationwide and 20 percent in the Visayas. Crucially, she also saw a 13 percent drop in her approval ratings in Mindanao, reflecting potential fractures in the “Solid South” vote base if current trend lines hold. Her numbers are a far cry from the heyday of the “UniTeam” when Sara Duterte enjoyed a solid majority across all major demographics and near-universal support in Mindanao.

Back in September, I explained in these pages (“Dutertismo: A Scam Exposed?”) how throughout “a succession of public relations disasters, followed by even more disastrous performance during multiple legislative hearings, Sara Duterte has exposed herself as a poor copy of her father.” Over the succeeding weeks, she worsened her situation by openly threatening the lives of the President, the First Lady and the Speaker of the House.

Aside from her own personal limitations and abysmal performance in office, however, Sara Duterte is suffering from another structural weakness: the absence of “fear factor.”

Throughout his singularly destructive reign, former president Rodrigo Duterte maintained sky-high approval ratings, which only partly reflected his art for performative governance. Yes, Duterte was a master of the ”Art of Budol,” namely projecting strength and competence while gradually setting democratic institutions and our economy on fire.

But Duterte also knew how to scare people. It’s quite telling that as many as eight out of 10 Filipinos expressed fear of ending up as a victim of extrajudicial killings, according to the Social Weather Stations. Duterte’s monopoly of assistance funds coupled with the weaponization of cyber libel laws during the COVID-19 pandemic sealed the deal.

Urban poor Filipinos, who constitute the majority of voters, constituted the demographic that was hit hardest by extrajudicial killings. In an exhaustive journal article entitled “Pretending to Support?” Japanese social scientists Yuko Kasuya and Hirofumi Miwa systematically examined how “preference falsification” could be the best explanation for Duterte’s historic approval ratings, especially among class D voters.

As I repeatedly asked pollsters back in the day: What is the incentive of respondents to honestly express dissatisfaction with President Duterte when they just watched a neighbor gunned down in impunity the other day?

Duterte’s loss, however, is not necessarily the Marcos camp’s gain. President Marcos’ approval ratings are below 50 percent, which is extremely low compared to his two immediate predecessors. His cousin, Speaker Martin Romualdez, is doing even worse, with barely a quarter of voters approving his performance. Overall, what we are witnessing is ”mutual destruction” between the two most powerful dynasties in the country.

The biggest winners, so far, are the Tulfo brothers. While Erwin and Ben Tulfo are vying for the top spots in next year’s senatorial race, Sen. Raffy Tulfo has overtaken Sara Duterte in pre-election surveys for the 2028 presidential race. Dutertismo may be on the way out, but ”Tulfismo” is having its moment in the sun. In many ways, unabashed populism is seemingly still the only game in town.

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rheydarian@inquirer.com.ph