Evaluating vice-presidential performance

How should Vice President Jejomar “Jojo” Binay’s new SWS net satisfaction rating of +69 (from 78 percent gross satisfied and 9 percent dissatisfied) as of June 2011, first published in BusinessWorld Friday, be touted?

Social Weather Stations is contented with calling it Very Good, using the term we assign to net ratings of +50 to +69. It is just short of Excellent, the SWS term for net ratings of +70 or more.

Yet all survey data users are entitled to their own interpretations, since freedom of speech includes freedom of interpretation. Some will search for the upside, others for the downside.

VP Jojo surely has many fans who will emphasize that he is “more popular” than President Aquino, whose net satisfaction rating in the same SWS survey is +46, categorized by SWS as Good, i.e. between +30 and +49.

VP Jojo also has critics, on the other hand, who will stress his drop from a net satisfaction rating of +74, or Excellent, in March 2011. Perhaps P-Noy defenders will try to offset the publicity on the President’s drop from Very Good in March to Good in June.

The reason I put “more popular” above in quotes is, first of all, because the SWS survey question asks about being satisfied with a person’s performance as an official, rather than about liking the official as a person; the latter is the direct way to poll literal popularity. Secondly, the jobs of president and vice president are not directly comparable.

For me, the satisfaction ratings of two senators are comparable, since they have the same position. But I would only compare a president to past presidents, and a vice president to past vice presidents. In each case, I would use the same time-point after taking office, to account for the honeymoon phenomenon.

SWS surveys about past vice presidents. The late Salvador “Doy” Laurel proved, all too soon, to be a public disappointment as vice president.  His net rating started with a Good +44 in March 1986, but collapsed to net -5 (Neutral, i.e. between -9 and +9) in October 1987, after it became obvious that he wished for a military coup to succeed in ousting President Cory Aquino and installing him in her place.

The people never forgave VP Doy’s disloyalty. In the remaining seven surveys of public satisfaction with him, his rating stayed Neutral six times, and then closed with a Poor net -10. No matter how low President Cory’s rating fell, VP Doy’s rating was always much less. Doy finished last in the race for president in 1992.

Joseph “Erap” Estrada was outstandingly popular as vice president. His net satisfaction ratings were Excellent for 10 consecutive quarters, from mid-1992 until the end of 1994. His +87 in July 1993—the calendar counterpart of VP Jojo’s new net rating—is the record high for a VP.

In the next 14 surveys, up to the end of his term, Erap scored Very Good six times and Good eight times, closing at +41 in March 1998.  He far outscored President Fidel V. Ramos in every contemporaneous survey. Though not from FVR’s party, Erap acted as a loyal VP. He went on to easily defeat Jose de Venecia in the May 1998 election for president.

The popularity of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (GMA) when she was VP was not far below that of Erap as VP. Her net ratings were Excellent in her first five quarters, and also in her seventh quarter. She peaked at +81 in November 1988 and March 1999. Up to her ninth quarter, her score was not less than Very Good. All this while, it was much higher than that of President Erap, who came from a different party.

Then it suddenly collapsed to a merely Neutral -4 in December 2000, after GMA had openly turned her back on President Erap during the juetenggate  crisis, and campaigned for his ouster. Like Doy, she had committed the sin of disloyalty to the sitting president. December 2000 was the single time her rating was below that of President Erap, who had a Neutral +9, with his impeachment trial underway.

The public never warmed up too much to Vice President Teofisto Guingona, who was chosen by GMA to fill the VP vacancy created upon her assuming the presidency in January 2001. His highest net rating of +19, in March 2001, was Moderate (i.e. between +10 and +29).

In 12 succeeding surveys, his rating was Moderate eight times and Neutral four times, with a low point of -4 in May 2002, closing at +2 in June 2004. Yet, despite such modest scores, VP Guingona scored above President GMA in five consecutive polls from November 2002 to November 2003, or for almost half of his term as vice president.

Vice President Noli “Kabayan” de Castro began his term with a net satisfaction rating of +39, or Good (between +30 and +49). In 18 of his 24 quarters in office, his rating was Good, going as high as +47 in March 2008. In the other six quarters it was Moderate, closing at +23 in June 2010.

Throughout his term, VP Kabayan was more popular than President Arroyo. This wasn’t difficult to do, with GMA’s contemporary scores all negative, except for a +12 in August 2004.  Kabayan was loyal, but unfortunately his loyalty was to the most unpopular president the country ever had. He did not run for president in 2010; a wise choice, assuming it was his to make.

Given that VP Jojo’s ratings have been above P-Noy’s ever since their terms began, does that portend a bright future for him, according to survey history?

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