Marcos Jr: A Plan B against Dutertes?

Two weeks ago, I argued, in multiple platforms, that the Ferdinand Marcos Jr. administration was likely about to unleash some major political torrent on enemies of the state. My hunch was confirmed when the government and its allies pulled off a hat trick, namely extraditing Alice Guo, arresting Pastor Apollo Quiboloy, and, most recently, reportedly driving Harry Roque into hiding in very quick succession. Owing to their association with powerful elements, each of these notorious individuals was seen, in various degrees, as de facto immune from the reach of law and justice.

Not long ago, Roque, who served as former president Rodrigo Duterte’s spokesperson, served as a key adviser to the Marcos administration on the International Criminal Court investigations into the infamous drug war between 2016-2019. At one point, he reportedly even eyed the secretary of foreign affairs position. And, once upon a time, the same person was one of the most decorated experts on international humanitarian law.

Last week, the same person was served an arrest warrant after being cited for contempt by the House of Representatives for seemingly refusing to submit subpoenaed documents that would shed light on his alleged involvement with Philippine offshore gaming operators (Pogos). House Secretary General Reginald Velasco confirmed that police forces would help apprehend Roque “as the [arrest] order is considered served even if Roque’s staff refused to receive it.”

After trying to obfuscate his alleged involvement with illegal Pogos through his tried-and-tested strategy of mixing legalese jargon with non sequitur blabbering, the former presidential spokesperson was effectively checkmated by his former colleagues (and student) at the House.

“No one is above the law, and we will not tolerate anyone defying the authority of Congress or evading accountability,” said Laguna Rep. Dan Fernandez, who chairs the House committee on public order and safety. “This kind of defiance cannot be taken lightly, as it underscores the seriousness of the allegations against him. We will pursue this matter through all available legal avenues until justice is served,” he added.

With more than a few clownish figures diluting the sanctity of the once-august Senate, our highest chamber, the Congress—once a bastion of traditional politician antics—has stepped up as the institutional gold standard for incisive hearings in recent months.

The hat trick gains greater significance when placed within the broader context of the “House of Marcos vs House of Duterte” struggle for power at the national level. All the three—Guo, Quiboloy, and Roque—were tethered to the Dutertes in one way or another. And all three had their own distinct “China connection.”

The Chinese national Guo, and countless other illegal aliens like her, tremendously benefited from the “golden era of Pogo’ under the Duterte presidency. Meanwhile, Quiboloy has been Dutertes erstwhile ally in the Deep South, while Roque has allegedly benefited from both the Pogo boom as well as Duterte’s patronage.

Naturally, therefore, the question is this: Will the Dutertes be next? Over the past two weeks, multiple congressmen—from Zia Adiong to France Castro—have told me that there is no “impeachment plan” versus Vice President Sara Duterte, who is facing tremendous criticism for her impeccably incompetent and suspiciously questionable stint as the former head of the Department of Education.

Nor there seems to be any major move to hold other members of the Duterte dynasty accountable for alleged involvement in shady deals, either with China and/or criminal groups hailing from the Asian superpower. In response, former senator Antonio “Sonny” Trillanes is now contemplating the prospect of personally getting the ball rolling in tandem with sympathetic congressmen, who could serve as sponsors for a prospective impeachment proceeding against the Vice President.

With election season just-over-the-horizon, however, it’s unlikely that the ruling establishment will go for the jugular anytime soon. It appears that the “Plan B” is to outspend, outmaneuver, and outsmart the Dutertes in the midterm elections and, shortly after, either push for potential constitutional change and/or embark on a systematic marginalization of the Dutertes ahead of the 2028 elections. But underestimating the notorious dynasty is foolhardy. If true, this slow-burn strategy could turn out as riskier down the road. As Ralph Waldo Emerson once warned: “When you strike at a king, you must kill him.”

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