Complicated approach to Myanmar crisis

Indonesia assumed the role of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) chair after Cambodia successfully completed its 2022 chairmanship. There are many concerns and expectations facing Indonesia as it leads Asean this year, such as the conflict in Myanmar, territorial disputes in the South China Sea, and Asean’s stance regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Asean chair countries always have many issues to deal with, and everyone seems to have their own opinion on what each chair’s authority entails. Before assuming the chairmanship, Cambodia received harsh criticism from Malaysia’s former foreign minister about how it dealt with the crisis in Myanmar. But Malaysia, before its most recent election, deported many Rohingya refugees, sending them back to a hostile country where they were not safe.

Cambodia also received praise for many of the outcomes of its Asean chairmanship because the country made many clear decisions on issues that arose in the world.

Indonesia was fortunate to receive numerous compliments before assuming the role of Asean chair, but it would be premature to evaluate the book before we have finished reading it, so we are unable to anticipate the outcome of Indonesia’s leadership this year. At the conclusion of each chairmanship, not at the start, each Asean chair should be assessed.Let us concentrate on the Myanmar crisis, which Indonesia will need to address on behalf of Asean this year.

The Myanmar crisis occurred while Brunei was Asean chair, and it remained a contentious issue for Asean during Cambodia’s leadership. Brunei and Cambodia used different leadership styles in trying to resolve the problem, with Cambodia becoming more involved in negotiations with members of the Myanmar regime and several other stakeholders. Cambodia had likewise made every effort to get the junta’s approval before meeting with Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG) leaders and representatives in exile.

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen received a lot of criticism when he first visited Myanmar on Jan. 7, 2022, to meet with the junta’s officials.

In its moment as bloc leader, Indonesia can learn from the previous leaderships of Brunei and Cambodia. What is the best method Indonesia can use to lead Asean toward resolving the Myanmar problem?

Foreign embassies have remained in Myanmar since the beginning of the crisis in February 2021, and they are quietly collaborating with the military junta. There is still a permanent Indonesian embassy in Myanmar. Myanmar’s trade with its neighbors, particularly Thailand, China, and India, has significantly expanded over the past year.

Myanmar’s neighbors consistently cooperate with its rulers, interested only in whoever leads the country, not in how they came to power.

If Indonesia formally recognizes the NUG and offers the representative of the ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi a seat in Asean on Myanmar’s behalf, a complicated scenario for Asean would arise, as the military junta is in power and has openly done business with some Asean members as well as other major world powers.The NUG deserves to be recognized as Myanmar’s government because it was legitimately chosen by the country’s people, but it is not currently in charge and lacks the resources to challenge the junta, which is currently able to maintain power thanks to its collaboration with other nations in trade and the acquisition of military hardware.

If Indonesia’s president meets with the junta’s leaders, the country will be criticized just like Cambodia was. If Indonesia hosts meetings only with other Asean members and dialogue partners while ignoring the junta, it will be difficult to make progress in resolving the conflict in Myanmar.

Will Indonesia request that its ambassador to Myanmar, who is currently there, return home? Will Indonesia declare war in retaliation against the military regime? Could Indonesia prevent Myanmar’s neighbors from doing business with the junta?

If the relevant parties in Myanmar realize that only internal agreement among themselves can put an end to the crisis in their country, it is possible that it will be resolved amicably.

However, this will not happen if Indonesia disregards all the parties in Myanmar or if Asean only engages in conversation among participants at the summit, while ignoring other relevant parties.

Best wishes to Indonesia in its Asean chairmanship. The Jakarta Post/Asia News Network

—————-

Seun Sam is a policy analyst based at the Royal Academy of Cambodia. The views expressed are his own.

—————-

The Philippine Daily Inquirer is a member of the Asia News Network, an alliance of 22 media titles in the region.