MAGA

Make America Great Again! (MAGA)”

So goes the campaign slogan of reelected United States President Donald Trump. Interestingly, it isn’t all that original since a similar one was used back in 1965 by then Sen. Ferdinand E. Marcos Sr. during his successful march to his first term as Philippine president.

With Trump’s imminent assumption of office, the air is rife with speculations on how he would actually translate his campaign slogan into reality via specific programs, legislative proposals, and foreign policy. From the thrust of statements he’s been making, it seems he intends to effect major structural policy and even sociopolitical changes on both the domestic and foreign affairs fronts. I will leave it to others to discuss sociopolitical matters, as those are more peculiar to American societal interaction that many others are more familiar with.

Suffice it for me to observe, at the risk of being simplistic, that he appears determined to restore “traditional values,” and put the brakes on the forward march of progressive liberalism particularly its so called “woke” fringe. Somewhat associated with these are two of his highest priorities: securing US borders from the recent surge of illegal migrants, and rebalancing (as he sees it) the country’s energy sector development strategy from a rapid headlong plunge into renewable energy dependence, toward a somewhat more gradual transition to that goal by restoring fossil fuel exploration, or as he puts it, “Drill baby, drill.”

On the domestic economic front, his game plan appears aimed at restoring dynamic economic growth by tax cuts and reduced government regulation. This, he hopes, would energize the private sector and put more disposable income in the pockets of the middle and working class, entrepreneurs, and corporations, thus creating jobs and hopefully, a virtuous cycle of higher employment rates that would broaden the tax base and generate a more positive budget outcome to meet the pressing financing needs of, among others, modernizing the country’s infrastructure.

The downside to this strategy is that the effect of tax cuts has a lag time during which already serious fiscal deficits may grow, resulting in even greater temptation to print money that will end up fueling inflation and escalating the level of national debt that even now threatens to become unmanageable. This latter vicious cycle outcome Trump hopes to stem by serious cuts in expenditure.

Such cuts appear to depend mainly on a draconian review of “wasteful government expenditures” by the envisioned new Department of Government Efficiency led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. This involves the surgical trimming of perceived bloated bureaucracy in such agencies as the departments of education and of defense, and defense expenditure itself. The US defense budget is 10 times that of the next 10 countries in the world combined as it maintains 750 military bases in 80 countries. Furthermore, an announced centerpiece of Trump’s foreign policy is to proactively encourage negotiations toward peace on all major war fronts, if only to carry the record of having no wars during his tenure.

However, the bellicose side of his foreign policy, namely tariff drumbeating designed, it seems, to restore a more vibrant manufacturing sector to the US economy, could be problematic. He may find that his tendency toward breast beating may have to be balanced by his equally adept sense of the “art of the deal” toward win-win solutions in a world where BRICS—a forum for cooperation among a group of emerging economies including Brazil, Russia, China and the United Arab Emirates—is a serious reality rather than a pushover. As well, the evolution from a unipolar to a multipolar world order appears to be gaining momentum so that moves to preserve US trade and military dominance may have to be tempered with a wiser strategy of revitalizing US competitiveness toward winning the hearts and minds of the world’s citizenry.

Assuming things go reasonably well toward the MAGA scenario, what’s in it for the Philippines? At the very least, a US economy averting pneumonia will help stabilize the value of the peso and continue the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ already optimistic scenario of progressively lowering interest rates. There are also signs that the US is more interested in an investment-oriented, rather than a China-containment, policy with us, such that Musk is reportedly eyeing the Philippines as a significant center for his expanded Asian business operations. Under these circumstances, President Marcos would be well advised to lead in calming turbulent local political waters, refocusing on the country’s economic priorities and comparative advantages, and dusting off his father’s battle cry, “This nation can be great again.”

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Roberto F. De Ocampo, OBE, is a former finance secretary and a finance minister of the year in 1995, 1996, and 1997.

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