The political future of 2016 losers

If history is used as a guide, the presidential and vice presidential candidates who lost in the May 9 elections have a slim chance of being elected in the future to the positions for which they aspired.

From 1992, when elections were held after the term of President Cory Aquino ended, up to 2010, none of the presidential and vice presidential aspirants who ran, lost, and ran again for either position won.

Miriam Defensor-Santiago ran for president in 1992 and lost to Fidel Ramos. She tried again in 1998 but was trounced by Joseph Estrada. For the third time, she lost in this year’s elections.

In 2004, Loren Legarda ran for vice president in the ticket of presidential candidate Fernando Poe Jr. and lost. She ran again for the same position in 2010 with presidential candidate Manuel Villar and was likewise unsuccessful.

In 2010, Mar Roxas’ bid for the vice presidency was stymied by Jejomar Binay despite getting high ratings in the voter preference surveys conducted a week before the elections.

Luck was not on Roxas’ side again in this year’s elections, when his presidential ambitions buckled under overwhelming voter support for Rodrigo Duterte. The same fate was suffered by Binay, Defensor-Santiago and Grace Poe.

It is noteworthy to mention that, before running for president or vice president, Legarda, Roxas and Poe topped their respective senatorial elections. Legarda did it in 1998 and 2007. Roxas got 19 million votes in 2004. And Poe received 20 million votes in 2013.

The results of their presidential and vice presidential bids show that garnering the highest number of votes in the senatorial race does not translate to victory in the election for the two highest positions of the land.

Is it mere coincidence, or is there a jinx on presidential and vice presidential candidates who lose in their election bids?

For some unexplained reasons, the majority of the voters appear averse to voting for these candidates when they run for such positions again, in spite of the fact that they do not have derogatory records that would discourage voters from voting for them again.

Apparently, the line “It’s lovelier the second time around” does not apply to politics at the highest level: A second or third try seems to be a recipe for failure.

This should be food for thought for the presidential and vice presidential candidates who did not make it this year and who, on account of their youth, are still potential contenders for these high posts in the future.

For reasons of age or health, this year’s elections would probably be the last for Binay, Defensor-Santiago, and Gregorio Honasan, who has expressed his desire to retire from politics when his term ends in 2019.

On the other hand, the presidential and vice presidential fields are wide open for Poe, Leni Robredo, Alan Peter Cayetano, Chiz Escudero, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Antonio Trillanes IV.

The final tally of the vice presidential contest between Robredo and Marcos will have a significant bearing on the future political plans of their fellow vice presidential candidates.

If Robredo wins, she will be a strong contender for the presidency in 2022; in case she loses, she can run for Congress in 2019 or go back to the NGO work she was busy with before she entered politics.

In the event Marcos is elected vice president, he has six years to prepare for a presidential bid. A loss, however, would keep him in political limbo for three years because his senatorial term will end on June 30.

He can run for the Senate again in 2019 and, if he wins, make a try for the presidency or vice presidency in 2022. And if he does, he would have to contend with the jinx that has hounded losing presidential or vice presidential candidates in the past.

Regardless of who becomes vice president, Cayetano is favorably positioned to take a crack at the presidency in 2022. According to reports, Duterte is inclined to appoint him to a Cabinet position.

If the appointment pushes through and Cayetano makes good in the job (or perceived as such by the public)—barring any falling out with Duterte—he will be in a good position to break the jinx and find his way to Malacañang in 2022.

Poe, Escudero and Trillanes have three years to impress the public that they deserve the seats to which they were elected in 2013, or perhaps a higher office.

Except for Poe who was elected senator only in 2013, Escudero and Trillanes will no longer be eligible for reelection in 2019 because they would have served two consecutive terms in the Senate and are therefore barred from further reelection. They have three years to decide whether to run for senator again or seek higher office in 2022.

This early, with the official proclamation of the new president and vice president still weeks ahead, some of the losing presidential and vice presidential candidates are doubtless already making plans for their political future.

Raul J. Palabrica (rpalabrica@inquirer.com. ph) writes a weekly column in the Business section of the Inquirer.