Battle for votes in the 2025 senatorial elections

Come February 11 next year, the senatorial campaign season starts, and the recent poll surveys from leading firms such as Social Weather Stations (SWS), Pulse Asia, and Octa Research provide a revealing yet volatile snapshot of the electoral landscape for the upcoming senatorial elections. These surveys claims encapsulate the public pulse, hinting at potential winners and losers in what promises to be a fiercely contested race.

Name recognition, regional dynamics, campaign methodology, voter engagement, command vote, and ability to read and adapt to changing political winds are necessary issues that must be faced head-on. And at the end, the winners will be those who earned the voters’ trust, empathy, and relevance at the poll precincts.

Another major battleground is the dynamics of news sources watched by young and adult Filipinos. A blistering neck and neck battle is ongoing among legacy media (journalists-news media) against social media (online influencers and personalities). During Duterte’s campaign, social media was much neglected and ridiculed by the then proud journalists/media men paving the way for a one-sided campaign narrative which brought the former president to Malacañang.

This year’s Reuters Institute Digital News Report (DNR) studies say Facebook, X, YouTube, Instagram are platforms hotly contested by online influencers and traditional journalists. However, TikTok is emerging as the dominant news source today while Facebook, YouTube and X platforms faced declines. Filipinos appear to like short online news videos and eight out of 10 are watching short news videos weekly.   No wonder, we see several senators dishing out crazy TikTok videos lately. 

Online we are witnessing a vicious war of troll memes and outrageous caricatures on national issues e.g., the controversial VP Sara rants, the criminal Duterte empire of drugs, Pharmally and POGOs from one end and, the Tambaloslos attacks on Speaker Romualdez, Bangag administration, the crocs in Congress among others.   The use of AI images on cartoons and other “fake news” are also proliferating but with of extra care today because of the newly minted cyberlibel law.  Both sides aim to create a “mindset” for the recipient voter to favor their candidate opposition or administration, even if the information was false. 

DDS trolls has lost its previous total domination after legacy media entered their turf. Even the DNR studies supported this trend. On Twitter X, journalists/news media are 53 percent compared to 52 percent to online personalities while on YouTube it is 53 percent- journalists/news media and only 47 percent for online personalities. 

However, online personalities still have a substantial lead over journalists/news media on TikTok 51%-41%, Facebook 47%-40%, and Instagram 47%-43%.  These numbers indicate that at the very least legacy media are now woke and engaging disinformation on social media.

This is also true on senatorial campaigns to be launched next year. In news media, we see the emergence of 15 seconder news videos of candidates targeted for TikTok and Facebook Reels. How this will impact on their political winnabilities will be seen in the next credible poll surveys. 

Both the former dominance of trolls during Duterte’s time and the “massive ayuda” during the COVID pandemic, triggered landslide results in the 2019, and recent 2022 senatorial elections.

The next senatorial elections next year would be different. Disinformation in social media is slowly but surely being diminished by Cyberlibel laws while there is a growing presence or challenge by news media and from “traditional politicians” who are fighting back with their own troll armies.

Another important factor at play is the impact of the monstrous “ayuda” version of this administration. I am referring to the millions of recipients of Alay sa Kapos ang Kita program (AKAP) and Assistance to Individuals in Crisis Situations (AICS) of the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD).

Nearly 4 million “near poor” families nationwide received a one-time cash assistance of P3,000 to P5,000 each from AKAP of which 589,000 families are in Metro Manila. These are real and listed beneficiaries whose incomes fall below the poverty line. (Our house helps and her friends from our subdivision received these too). On the other hand, AICS primarily provides medical assistance, burial, transportation, education, food, or financial assistance for other support services or needs of a person or family. (Hospital bills amounting to P400,000 and up to millions are being given by DSWD on qualified crisis families). In 2023, around 6.5 million families benefitted from this program with a total of P40-B.

Even if critics denounce AKAP and AICS as political tools, its impact on the millions of family beneficiaries cannot be sidetracked.  The concept of social reform is correct, AKAP for helping people with less income and AICS for helping families in distress because of mounting hospital bills and medicines. And its tremendous help to recipients is triggering sense of gratitude to the present administration.   10.5 million families directly helped by these two programs alone is a very formidable election number.

I remember the warm fervor when grateful Filipino voters, from 19 million families, who received the Covid-19 Ayuda during Duterte’s time, followed his command vote and responded with lopsided wins in the 2019 and 2022 senatorial polls. But today is a different situation and we still must assess its impact on voter sentiment whether this will indeed be a command vote come election time. 

Judging from poll survey leaders, corruption and crime have become non-priority issues. Voters choose their candidates today on many issues such as   integrity, honesty, track record, platform/advocacy, educational background, experience in government etcetera. But truth of the matter, I will insist that people today are voting on just two major criteria, POPULARITY and BEING HELPFUL. 

If you are popular, people will vote for you but if you are popular in a negative way, they will reject you.  But if you are popular or less popular but helpful especially to poor people and defend the downtrodden, you will get their vote. 

As I mentioned earlier, today’s electorate is increasingly savvy and discerning, demanding accountability, and transparency from their leaders.  However, we must also remain cautious of overinterpretation. No one can ascertain the future shifts in public sentiment that can occur quickly as campaigns roll out. Negative campaigning, unforeseen national issues, or global events can reshape perspectives overnight. This unpredictability adds an exciting yet precarious element to the current election narrative.

In conclusion, while frontrunners currently dominate the polls, the true test of winnability will unfold as campaigns intensify and voter engagement escalates. Ultimately, it is the connection they forge with voters—based on trust, relevance, empathy, popularity and being helpful—that will determine who emerges victorious in the upcoming senatorial race.

Happy New Year 2025!