The meeting of defense chiefs from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) and its dialogue partners, including the United States, Japan, and Australia, in Cebu last week could not have come at a better time. The gathering—formally called the Asean Defense Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM)-Plus—came days after a word war escalated between Philippine officials and the Chinese embassy following a provocative statement by Chinese Ambassador Jing Quan that China could “easily win” a military conflict with the Philippines if it wanted to by using force.
“If we want to use force, we may easily win. But no, we will not use force. You know, we love peace,” Jing told reporters on the sidelines of an event held on Oct. 15. It was the kind of veiled threat that instantly gaslighted Filipinos who are reeling from decades of Chinese intrusion in Philippine territorial waters in the West Philippine Sea.
President Marcos said Jing’s statement “sounds very much to me like a threat, and it is not a very diplomatic statement to make,” adding, “I think that deserves a discussion between the ambassador and myself.” Jing was summoned to the Department of Foreign Affairs, where Foreign Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro protested his “provocative and unacceptable” statement and condemned the Chinese embassy’s public statements attacking Filipino officials who criticized the ambassador’s threat.
Persona non grata
Senators and House members called on Mr. Marcos to declare Jing persona non grata, to which the Chinese embassy’s smug retort was: “Just do it … Otherwise, STOP BLUFFING.” Despite the arrogant statements of the Chinese embassy, the President rejected the call to declare Jing unwelcome, preferring diplomatic means to resolve the issue.
The ADMM-Plus could have addressed this atmosphere of conflict when it held its 20th meeting in Cebu to discuss regional and global security challenges, including conflicts in the South China Sea, which is considered a major flashpoint for military conflict in the region.
For the Philippines, which chairs Asean this year, the meeting of the Asean defense chiefs could be another forum to highlight the dangerous situation brewing in the West Philippine Sea, where Chinese ships routinely shoo away Filipino fishermen and use water cannons on Philippine coast guard vessels. Chinese aggression has continued despite the Philippines winning the arbitration case under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea in 2016, which China has refused to accept.
Consistent with its repudiation of international law, China chose to downplay the ADMM-Plus meeting by sending the defense attaché at the Chinese embassy in Manila instead of its defense minister.
Significant downgrade
Consistent with its repudiation of international law, China chose to downplay the ADMM-Plus meeting by sending a defense attaché instead of its defense minister, and then blamed the Philippines for this downgrade.
The downgrade reflects China’s attitude toward the worsening conflict with the Philippines in the West Philippine Sea, a situation of its own making. Undoubtedly, too, the high-profile presence of US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is another reason for China’s move, as Beijing rejects the US role and presence in the Indo-Pacific region through its support for allies like the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, and others.
It is not only the Philippines, however, that is protesting and denouncing China’s actions in the South China Sea. Japanese Defense Minister Shinjirō Koizumi warned against “coercion against vulnerable countries” and the risk of “dangerous miscalculations” from China’s naval activities in the South China Sea.
Koizumi said during the meeting that Asean’s security environment is “deteriorating rapidly” and called on the regional bloc to overcome its differences and engage in cooperation with Asean’s partners in new areas such as artificial intelligence, unmanned systems, and protection of undersea cables amid China’s actions.
Dangerous incidents
Koizumi and Hegseth, in a separate meeting, agreed to “implement an effective denial defense in the First Island Chain,” an area east of China’s coast that includes Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines.
The Philippines knows those risks only too well. The water cannon attack by Chinese ships against a Philippine vessel in Scarborough Shoal last July and the ramming of a Philippine vessel off Palawan in September were among the dangerous incidents that could potentially spark a military conflict.
Now Hegseth has proposed the creation of an “ambitious” new US-Asean defense framework that he said would help Asean navigate the difficult years ahead. No details of the framework have been disclosed, though, and such a proposal would take some time to be discussed and adopted, if at all, given Asean’s policy of consensus and noninterference.
But by forfeiting its seat at the table for a meaningful dialogue, China is increasingly isolating itself from neighbors who are seeking to peacefully resolve conflicts and address economic and security challenges in Asia, as responsible nations are expected to do.