No lack of optimism now

Yes, our country has so many problems. But, at this time, there is no problem with the people’s optimism—see “Second Quarter 2025 Social Weather Survey: 47 percent of adult Filipinos say their Quality of Life will improve in the next 12 months” (www.sws.org.ph, 9/12/25). With only 5 percent expecting their uri ng pamumuhay to worsen, the latest net optimism is +41 (correctly rounded), which SWS rates as excellent (+40 and up). By the way, the missing balance from 100 percent is due to those expecting no-change (37) and those not answering (11).

Personal optimism is a very old SWS indicator. When first surveyed, in April 1984, optimism was 26 percent and pessimism was 30 percent, or a dour net -4, which we now call low (from -9 to 0). When next surveyed, in July 1985, optimism already outpointed pessimism, 30 to 20, or net +10, which we call Fair (+10 to +19). There were only two “O-P” surveys in the time of Ferdinand Marcos, Sr. Pessimism did not rule again until 1999, three presidents later. (This narration of a 164-survey history uses the presidents for time reference only, and does not assign them either credit or blame for the people’s expectations.)

The third O-P survey was in May 1986, under Corazon Aquino. It found net optimism at +31 = 40 – 9, which we call very high. The net score climbed further to +35 in March 1987, just after the ratification of the Constitution, but dropped sharply to +7 that October, after the failed coup attempt in August. (Feel free to ignore my comments, dear reader, if you prefer other explanations.)

In 13 surveys of Cory’s time, O-P was very high (+30 to +39) twice, high (+20 to +29) five times, fair (+10 to +19) three times, and mediocre (+1 to +9) three times, including the +7 bottom; it ended at a high +22. Its peak of +35 was the record high until 2010.

In the time of Fidel Ramos (1992 to 1998), the Social Weather Surveys became a quarterly; they were done 26 times. O-P started at a very high +33. Its low point was a mediocre +6 (October 1995). It was never negative. It was very high twice, high 13 times, fair 10 times, and mediocre once, and ended at a high +23.

In Joseph Estrada’s time (1998 to 2000), the first O-P score was a high +26; but then it went downhill. The next four scores, up to June 1999, were fair. From October 1999, it was mediocre three times, low three times, and very low (-10 or less) once, namely its record low -13 in October 2000, after the “jueteng-gate” affair. The final score, in December 2000, was zero.

In the time of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (2001 to 2010), O-P started at a mediocre +4 (January 2001), but quickly rose to a high +24 (February 2001). Then it faltered to fair levels at best, hitting bottom at a very low -13 (March 2005). It reached the +20s again only in late 2006, after five years. It was high eight times, fair 15 times, mediocre 14 times, low four times, and very low twice. Interestingly, its peak +36 (very high) came at the very end, in June 2010.

The time of strong and steady personal optimism started under Benigno Aquino III (2010 to 2016) whose first O-P was a very high +32. The least O-P in his time was a high +24. The O-P record high was repeatedly reset, at +37 in March 2015, then at +40 (the first-time Excellent) in December 2015, and also March 2016, and then at +46 in June 2016, the final survey of his time.

Personal optimism continued under Rodrigo Duterte (2016 to 2022), opening with +43 in September 2016. Twelve of the first 14 O-Ps were Excellent; it reached +47 in March 2019, the all-time high as of now. The pandemic was a gloomy episode, as O-P sank to its all-time low -19 in May 2020. Thankfully, it recovered with +35 in November 2020, and closed at +42 in June 2022.

The people’s optimism has continued under Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. (2022 to 2028), with O-P at +40 in October 2022. Its peak so far was +44 in both December 2022 and January 2025. Its low so far was +37 in March 2024.

The people’s personal expectations are part of their well-being. Sometimes they are affected by the states of governance and politics. But often they are not.

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Contact: [email protected].