Super El Niño demands urgent, science-based governance
The Philippines must prepare for Super El Niño with urgency grounded in science. Waiting for reservoirs to shrink, crops to fail, and food prices to climb would turn a foreseeable threat into a deeper national crisis.
The danger also lies in how unevenly the crisis may be felt. Small farmers, low-income households, and communities with unreliable water supplies have fewer resources to cope with prolonged heat and drought. Preparing early is therefore a matter of social justice: those least able to absorb the losses must receive support first.
The World Meteorological Organization, in its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, warns that El Niño will intensify before peaking in December and could rank among the strongest witnessed since at least 1950. This naturally occurring phenomenon is expected to raise temperatures across much of the planet, compounding the effects of human-induced climate change. For the Philippines, preparedness must connect water security, agriculture, public health, and livelihoods.
President Marcos’ call for citizens to collect rainwater is timely. Government agencies and communities are also promoting water conservation and rainwater harvesting. However, households need practical support to turn these appeals into sustained action. Conservation must be matched by reliable infrastructure and responsible reservoir management.
First, make science the basis of every intervention. Policies and practices must be backed by data and developed in consultation with Pagasa meteorologists, hydrologists, agricultural specialists, and data scientists. Local governments should use regularly updated rainfall forecasts, reservoir levels, soil-moisture measurements, and crop assessments to guide decisions. Forecast uncertainty requires flexible planning; it should never become an excuse for inaction.
Second, secure water while protecting communities from floods. Authorities should optimize reservoir operations using forecasts and safety rules, repair distribution leaks, rehabilitate irrigation canals, and support household and community rainwater harvesting. Schools and public buildings can serve as collection sites. Storage systems must be covered and properly maintained, with collected water assigned appropriate uses.
Third, tailor agricultural responses to regional needs. I join Dr. Teodoro Mendoza’s call (“Two phases, one crisis: Floods and drought under Super El Niño,” 9/29/2026) that the projected flood-to-drought transition requires buffer stock systems in Luzon, diversified cropping in the Visayas, and emergency feed programs in Mindanao, rather than a single national approach. These priorities should be refined through provincial forecasts and consultations with farmers. Assistance must arrive before harvest losses force families into debt.
Lastly, demand measurable performance from the constituted El Niño Task Force. It must do its job well and with a clear sense of urgency. Publish agency responsibilities, implementation deadlines, funding releases, and local preparedness indicators. Establish triggers for emergency water delivery, farm assistance, and heat-protection measures.
I believe preparedness should be judged by water secured, livelihoods protected, and assistance delivered on time. Super El Niño demands a government that listens to scientists, acts on evidence, and reaches vulnerable communities before the crisis deepens.
Danilo V. Rogayan Jr.,
