The end of the Duterte dynasty?
Rome—“Bato [dela Rosa] will be coming,” a government insider told me, referring to the impending arrest of the controversial senator, who served as former president Rodrigo Duterte’s henchman during the opening years of the brutal ”drug war.” The source asked me if I was planning to visit The Hague anytime soon. “I’m literally already on the way to Europe,” I responded, having consulted with other trusted sources on the direction of the wind in the International Criminal Court (ICC).
What I didn’t tell anyone, however, was that I was planning to first visit the ”eternal city” for a much-needed rejuvenation. The week before was particularly brutal. Thanks to a well-coordinated disinformation campaign by Duterte-leaning troll machines, I ended up receiving countless death threats and hundreds of personal insults on my messenger daily. “Richard, please don’t go out!” was the common refrain among loved ones. “Return home to Baguio, we will protect you here!” a troubled cousin told me. Another cousin wondered if I should spend more time with him in southern Spain until the dust settles.
Despite multiple clarifications, which received millions of views, as well as heartfelt apologies for any unintended hurt, too many people were seemingly misled by out-of-context quotations from my interview with CNN International’s Becky Anderson on the enduring popularity of the Duterte dynasty. Within a span of a minute or two, I not only mentioned the commonalities among right-wing populist constituencies among the world’s largest democracies—think of the “Make America Great Again” movement in the United States as well as the pro-Modi, pro-Erdogan, and pro-Orban diehards across the Eurasian landmass—but also the extreme developmental disparities due to the failures of ”imperial Manila” vis-à-vis Mindanao. As evident in the Google Trends spike, the concept of the Human Development Index was something new and technical to countless folks, who chose to speak based on raw emotion rather than a proper appreciation of my nuanced intervention.
But the pro-Duterte troll machine was intent on launching a full-fledged character assassination against any prominent Duterte critics, especially one who was appearing on all major global news outlets to explain the validity and circumstances of the ICC arrest. More than the online inanities, petty cheap shots by former colleagues and half-hearted defense by supposedly sympathetic figures, what truly troubled me was how dizzyingly fast everything was moving. I felt like desperately grasping at a slice of history amid a torrent of events.
Visiting Rome seemed like a natural and timely refuge to ”re-center” myself. I had also planned to consult with some priests who may have insider information on the developing situation in the Vatican as well as the role of our Catholic Church in protecting key witnesses in the ICC case against Duterte. The Rome I stumbled upon was the same majestic, somber metropolis filled with historical gravitas and unparalleled universal spirit. Not even the election of a post-fascist administration seemed to have left much mark on the city, which has survived unfathomable glories and untold misfortunes across thousands of years.
By all indications, however, the walls are rapidly closing in on our version of post-fascism, namely “Dutertismo.” The Social Weather Stations survey has shown that a clear majority of our people support the ICC trial of Duterte, with barely a quarter in opposition. Only 14 percent were ”undecided.” Duterte’s antics may win some sympathy now, but the long-term trend is not favorable to his whole dynasty. A henchman or two are already in ICC’s crosshairs. His daughter, who also oversaw the ”drug war” as former mayor of Davao City, is facing potential removal from office if not separate criminal charges. Meanwhile, there is a systematic crackdown on pro-Duterte troll farms and propagandists. A whole gallery of rogues are now facing the proverbial gallows.
As for superpowers, China seemingly views Duterte more of a liability these days, while the Trump administration has been conveniently silent on the arrest of a pro-China ex-leader by the very court it has sanctioned. The most decisive factor, however, is the stability of civil-military relations in the Philippines, namely the professionalism of our armed forces and the increasing efficacy of the Philippine National Police under Gen. Nicolas Torre III. In the words of Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr., a former Duterte ally: “Our sole mandate is to give support to [PNP] when it is asked for. And therefore, such ends our jurisdiction.”
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rheydarian@inquirer.com.ph
