The twists and turns of the presidential election

The coming presidential election may ironically become both the cheapest and most expensive election in our country’s history. It is the cheapest election for former senator Ferdinand Marcos Jr. because he has achieved massive voters’ support through his relatively inexpensive social media campaign. It is the cheapest election as well for Vice President Leni Robredo because she’s barely spending for the massive house-to-house campaign being launched in her name.

It may also turn out to be the most expensive election in our country because so many people are spending considerable amounts of their personal money, buying election campaign materials, and mounting their own house-to-house campaign. If a rough estimate is to be ventured on the amount of money that the many Leni volunteer groups nationwide may end up spending on their own, it would not be far-fetched to imagine that it could run into more than a billion pesos, based on the massive volunteer campaign efforts being done every day. Add to that the unquantified donated performances of so many artists who are performing in the huge rallies of Robredo.

The coming presidential election is paradoxical for several reasons. Marcos Jr. is ahead by a very wide and seemingly insurmountable margin in several surveys, but Robredo is the one showing massive and impressive numbers in her rallies. Why is Marcos Jr.’s wide survey margin not being reflected in his rally attendance, and why is Robredo’s ever increasing enormous numbers in her rallies not reflected in her survey results?

If Marcos Jr. is headed for a win by a wide margin, why are so many seasoned politicians—known for giving premium to their political survival through different administrations—throwing their support for Robredo? These include Davao Del Norte Rep. Pantaleon Alvarez, Albay Rep. Joey Salceda, Cavite Rep. Elpidio Barzaga Jr., the family of former speaker Jose De Venecia Jr., Eastern Samar Gov. Ben Evardone, to name a few. These shrewd and wily politicians have their ears on the ground in their bailiwicks. Are they feeling the ground shake?

Marcos Jr. still has the overwhelming support of many politicians by a big margin, however. His support among politicians is so big, in fact, that even rival politicians competing for the same gubernatorial, congressional, and mayoralty posts proclaim him as their presidential candidate. On the surface, this may appear as an advantage for Marcos Jr., but on the ground, it is a huge headache and liability for Marcos Jr.. The kind of support that he gets from warring politicians is immensely adulterated by enmity and rivalry.

In fact, the support that Robredo and Marcos Jr. get from local politicians has mere symbolic value. It doesn’t translate into real campaign support on the ground. Local politicians are always so concentrated on and consumed by their own election/re-election efforts. They show support for national candidates when the latter show up in their rallies, but as soon as they’re gone, they shift focus on their local campaign. As the saying goes, all politics is local.

As a matter of fact, funds that are downloaded by national candidates to local candidates would have minimal impact in helping the former. This is the dilemma of national candidates who don’t have their own national network of independent campaigners, and who rely on local politicians as distribution channels of campaign funds, either for vote-buying or for precinct watchers’ compensation purposes. The downloaded funds are either pocketed by local politicians or misused by them for their own local campaign expenses.

Election campaigners in Northern Luzon, Marcos Jr.’s presumed bailiwick, are witnessing a very revealing factor in voters’ demographics. Marcos Jr. enjoys favorable numbers among residents in town centers and along national highways. In contrast, Robredo is getting a fair share of votes in communities, which have weak or nonexistent internet. Campaigners surmise that this is because those who have access to the internet get their news from TikTok and YouTube, which are drowning in fake news that favor Marcos Jr., while residents of remote barangays get their news from the traditional media, like television and radio stations, that give fair coverage to Robredo.

The coming presidential election has so many twists and turns. It is ridden with paradoxes. It’s going to be a nail-biting finish for either Robredo or Marcos Jr.

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