THE RULING JUNTA OF BURMA (MYANMAR) was spared the catastrophic effects of Cyclone Nargis. Squirreled away in their new administrative capital, Naypyidaw, they didn’t experience the devastation that cost the lives of tens of thousands, left millions homeless, and threatens to deepen the problem of supplying enough rice for the region.

Time Magazine reports that the Burmese correlate divine favor with natural phenomena. In his book “The River of Lost Footsteps,” Thant Myint-U recounted that on the night Burma’s last king, Thibaw, decided to surrender to the British, there was a great meteor shower, which went down in legend as a harbinger of national calamity.

The cyclone, according to Time, is being viewed by the Burmese as a great sign of the loss of the mandate of heaven. It struck a week ahead of a scheduled constitutional plebiscite, which was expected to give the junta an opportunity to pretend it was loosening its iron grip on power. The junta merely delayed the holding of the plebiscite in the worst hit areas. Yesterday, the plebiscite began taking place in other parts of the country.

But besides a culture of divination and looking for omens, the Burmese have been making another, secular, comparison. Earlier this year, as the world watched with horror as Burmese monks were being beaten and arrested, one thing was sure: the ruling junta spared neither time nor resources to crack down on its own citizens. In contrast, in the wake of the disastrous cyclone, the military has made itself scarce. The initial death toll from the devastation has been compounded by deaths caused by disease and hunger. What is already a calamity is deepening into a catastrophe.

The junta has shown itself more interested in maintaining its grip on power and isolating the Burmese people from foreign influence, than on actually alleviating their plight. Foreign aid and relief workers have been subjected to red tape. Relief supplies in some cases were impounded by Burmese authorities. The World Food Program has resumed sending relief goods even as it irons out a dispute with the Burmese government, which is insisting that it alone should distribute food and medicine.

UN and international humanitarian organizations have registered their objections but continue to find ways to bring in relief supplies. Foreign governments have also registered protests. What is significant is that after its initial strong-arm tactics, the Burmese junta has begun to soften up—ever so slightly, but still, noticeably—on its initial position: to accept aid only on its own terms.

There is a chance that the Burmese junta, in the face of international outrage, would rather appear to be relenting than run the risk of actually facing a kind of international rebellion against its authority. At this point, there have been aid organizations who’ve hinted they will proceed with distributing aid even if forbidden to do so by the ruling junta. Neighboring countries, in particular, might be inclined to help infiltrate Burma with relief operations rather than be swamped by a flood of refugees fleeing the devastation.

The Philippines has announced it wants to send a modest medical mission; we can expect organizations such as the Philippine National Red Cross and the local chapter of other international organizations to contribute, however modestly, to the relief of Burma. It is in the field of regional diplomacy, however, that the Philippines can do the most good, by using its good offices to nudge Asean toward a common response.

The Burmese junta must be convinced that time is of the essence, and if Asean must be the buffer to calm the junta’s paranoia about Western aid, in particular, then our regional association of nations should step forward to offer itself to serve as such. As it is, the calamity in Burma is already being interpreted as the beginning of the end for the junta. But even if this is so, there is the humanitarian crisis in that country and this requires our attention and response.