President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, either personally or through her representative, is expected to file on Tuesday at the San Fernando Comelec office her certificate of candidacy for congresswoman in Pampanga?s first district. It puts to rest long months of speculation about her intentions beyond 2010. Earlier, there were speculations that she was pushing for Charter change so she could become prime minister?a local version of the Putin-Medvedev scenario in Russia. That bombed out eventually as the elections neared, but since then there was talk about an alleged administration plan to declare martial law, and the mass murders in Maguindanao only added fuel to this rumor.
Arroyo?s candidacy pulls the rug out from under all that, but there are graver implications. There is speculation that she?s running for a House seat to capture the speakership or to be in position to vie for the prime ministership in the event of Charter change. But the over-arching consideration bandied around by political commentators is that by occupying another ranking public office, Arroyo buys herself immunity from the law suits that are expected to hound her once she leaves Malacañang on June 30, 2010. That argument, of course, doesn?t hold, for an ex-president turned House member wouldn?t have such immunity.
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Arroyo?s filing of candidacy may be the strongest sign yet of her commitment to hold the elections in 2010. But there is no certainty she will be elected speaker or prime minister, for once a president leaves office the equation changes. It?s a different ball game in the House, especially if an opposition candidate wins the presidency. Her running has, however, greater implications for Lakas presidential bet Gibo Teodoro, for now he?s being projected as a separate persona: a bright, dynamic and exciting politician who will carve a new future for the party. Teodoro is succeeding in projecting this, as evidenced by the warm reception he has been getting around the country and his surge to the top among Facebook subscribers.
Arroyo should have followed the recommendation of her husband to enjoy their beautiful grandchildren in the succeeding years. Apos are fantastic.
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Critics of the Arroyo administration, including the very political chair of the Commission on Human Rights, Leila de Lima, assert that it has been too soft on the Ampatuans, owing to Arroyo?s debt of gratitude to that family in two past elections. The critics apparently wanted government forces to storm the Ampatuans? stronghold on the second day after the massacre and pulverize them all. But these critics do not know what they?re talking about. Had this been done, no one knows what kind of conflagration would have erupted, perhaps engulfing all of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), given the deadly arsenal and vast army of that dynasty, and its enormous connection with all kinds of characters in the Muslim world. As it turned out, government?s move seemed slower but surer, as it chose to first gather solid evidence. The main perpetrator, Mayor Andal Ampatuan Jr., is now locked up and the justice department is ready to charge others in the clan as co-conspirators.
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The Ampatuans have been in power in Maguindanao since after the Edsa Revolution, when?surprise of surprises?President Cory Aquino appointed the elder Andal Ampatuan Sr. as officer-in-charge of the province. In 2001 he was elected governor, while his son, Zaldy Ampatuan, became ARMM governor and so many relatives ruled as mayor in various municipalities. Since the Aquino era, the clan members? economic and political power in the province and in the ARMM grew as politicians struck a quid pro quo with them every election.
The military power of the Ampatuans combines legitimate government military/police as well as what?s known euphemistically as the civil volunteer organizations. The CVOs were militiamen deputized to fight insurgent groups. During the time of President Fidel V. Ramos, these were called BSDUs and then (Citizen Armed Forces Geographical Units) CAFGUs, but the rationale for forming them was the same. As former Defense Secretary Teodoro explains it, these militias were formed to help augment inadequate formal government forces, and they ended up as private armies of the warlords. Teodoro has been stressing in his over two years at the Department of National Defense that if these militias are to be dismantled, the standing army has to be increased in size and strength. More on this.
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An important and high-powered symposium will be held on Wednesday, Dec. 2, from 2 p.m. to 5:30 p.m. at the Leong Hall Auditorium of the Ateneo de Manila University, Loyola Heights, Quezon City. Admission is free, and I enjoin readers to attend it. For early registration e-mail marilou_abejar@yahoo.com, or call 426-6001, loc. 4666 or Dit at 426-5971, loc. 112. Sponsored by the Jesuit Philippine Province together with the Jesuit Communications Foundation and two or three other groups, the seminar is titled ?Caritas in Veritate: A Symposium on the Social Encyclical of Benedict XVI.? This is the first time in almost 18 years that the Roman Pontiff has issued a ?social encyclical,? i.e., a papal letter addressing social and economic realities. It comes nearly two decades after Pope John Paul II issued his 1991 ?Centesimus Annus,? which commented on the new world order brought about by the fall of Communism. Benedict?s ?Caritas in Veritate? is written against the backdrop of the world financial crisis and its serious repercussions on social and economic life. The symposium aims to identify the implications of his message in the Philippine context. Keynote speaker is the Jesuit father provincial, Jose Magadia, S.J. , a political scientist by training. To discuss the subject matter further, there is a panel composed of Cielito Habito, Guillermo Luz, Antonia Loyzaga and Imus Bishop Antonio Tagle.
