Earlier I wrote that if Manny Pacquiao wanted to run for governor or representative of Sarangani Province, that would seem all right inasmuch as he has a fervent desire to serve his countrymen. I spoke too soon. Like my media colleagues and the thinking public, I was appalled by the irresponsible way the champ disregarded the Department of Health?s exhortation for him to wait a few more days in Los Angeles, which has been placed on the watch list for swine flu. The incubation period for the flu virus takes a full week. I can understand his argument that it was tougher to wait in LA, but what?s unforgivable was the way he greeted the welcoming crowds at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA), led by his children, with hugs and kisses and then motoring with his party to the packed Quiapo church, the Mall of Asia and a hotel afterwards?when the most sensible thing to do was to leave the airport quickly and stay at home.
It seems Pacquiao?s head has swelled with all the adulation, especially his inclusion among the 100 most influential people by Time magazine. But the bigger blame lies with his advisers, led by Environment Secretary Lito Atienza. Instead of prodding him to be the true champion of the people?s welfare by minding their health, his advisers told him to ignore the admonition of the DOH and the World Health Organization and defy the Palace and insist that he?s very healthy. Pacquiao flunked this public service test, while Atienza et al. failed to project true wisdom.
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With the Comelec?s deadline for registration of national candidates set for November, the political tempest has begun to boil and political analysts like Tony Gatmaitan have already counted 14 candidates for the presidency. Among them, I note Noli de Castro, Manny Villar, Joseph Estrada, Mar Roxas, Richard Gordon, Chiz Escudero, Loren Legarda, Gilbert Teodoro, Bayani Fernando and it seems, judging from his expensive ads, Pagcor?s Ephraim Genuino. There are speculations that even Manny Pangilinan is running, though he has denied this. Some people think Go Negosyo?s Joey Concepcion is testing the water. Ang Kapatiran Party has launched a search for relatively unknown local politicians with proven track records, who could be projected for national roles. One of them is Mayor Rustico Balderian of Tabon-Tabon, Leyte, a successful US-based doctor who returned to his hometown, only to realize how sorely lacking it is in facilities to educate his poorer townmates. With his own money, Balderian put up a nursing school which became so successful (95 percent passing rate in the board) that students from bigger towns and cities began flocking there. Then he put up a hospital for the school, and later a computer school. Soon he realized that in order to transform his town more effectively he should run for mayor.
Interestingly, there seems to be as many political movements being launched as there are candidates. Among them are Gordon?s Bagumbayan, Ako Mismo which is suspected to be the support base of MVP, and recently the ChangePolitics Movement dominated by anti-administration people, which aims to reduce vote-buying but which I can foresee eventually pushing for an opposition candidate.
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Camarines Sur Rep. Luis Villafuerte of the Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino (Kampi) party was recently quoted as opining that the 2010 race will be a ?labanan ng mga mahihina? (battle of the weak) where the candidate with the political machinery wins. No doubt it will be a battle of coalitions and alliances, and here the touted merger of Lakas and Kampi, both under the President?s wings, is thought to have the advantage over groups seeking resuscitation such as the Nacionalista Party, Liberal Party and Nationalist People?s Coalition. But though presidential political adviser Gabby Claudio has been predicting the merger, when this will ever happen is anyone?s guess. Former President Joseph Estrada has threatened to run if the opposition doesn?t unite behind one candidate, but no matter how many coalitions are formed, it?s clear there will be five or six candidates running.
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Having many candidates raises the possibility of a minority winner again, at a time when a new president needs a clear and strong mandate to institute badly needed reforms because of the global economic crisis. This has given rise to the idea of a run-off election, similar to the system in some European countries (such as France, where Nicolas Sarkozy won in 2007 in a run-off against socialist candidate Segolene Royal, after they got the two highest number of votes in a field of four candidates). Iloilo Rep. Raul Gonzalez Jr. recently filed HB 6183, titled ?Run-Off Election for President,? on the argument that a minority-elected president is at a great disadvantage, because he has to forge alliances with various political groups and is thus more susceptible to the influence of certain vested interests as he tries to solidify his hold on power and govern more effectively.
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Gonzalez pointed out that all the post-EDSA presidents were minority presidents, with Fidel Ramos garnering only 23 percent of the votes in the 1992 elections and Joseph Estrada, the most popular post-EDSA candidate to run in a regular election, bagging only 40 percent. By contrast, asserts Gonzalez, all except one of our pre-EDSA presidents were elected by a majority vote. The exception was President Carlos P. Garcia who won a mere 41 percent of the votes in 1957. The two presidents who had the biggest margins of victory were Ramon Magsaysay in 1953 who got 69 percent of the votes, and Manuel Quezon who bagged 68 percent in 1935. The clear majority won by our pre-EDSA presidents may be one reason why their terms were marked by relative political stability. The exception was that of Ferdinand Marcos who, while having garnered 55 percent of votes over President Diosdado Macapagal, ran into enormous turbulence because of his declaration of martial law and his refusal to give up power.
