MANILA, Philippines—First, let me clarify my use of terms like bad and good. In the practice of Social Weather Stations (SWS), single-digit ratings of net satisfaction (percent satisfied minus percent dissatisfied), i.e., from -9 to +9, are termed neutral, since statistically indistinguishable from zero, and the satisfied and dissatisfied are more or less evenly balanced. The term neutral is generous to officials or agencies with small negatives, and conservative to those with small positives.

Double-digit net ratings, on the other hand, are definitely distinct from zero, and thus deserve terms that are clearly positive/favorable or negative/unfavorable. Net ratings from +10 to +29 are called moderate. Those from +30 to +49 are called good. Those of +50 and up are very good. On the other side, for symmetry, the range -10 to -29 is poor, -30 to -49 is bad, and -50 or lower is very bad.

The President. In 16 SWS surveys since October 2004, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s net rating has been neutral four times, poor nine times, bad three times, and very bad once.

The very bad -50 in July 2008 was, no doubt, due to this year’s rice price crisis. The fall from a neutral -3 in June 2007 is similar in scale to the radical drop in President Fidel Ramos’ rating from a very good +50 in December 1994 to a neutral +1 in October 1995, undoubtedly due to the rice price crisis that also occurred that year.

The national administration. Given President Arroyo’s ratings, it is understandable that public satisfaction with the general performance of the national administration has also been low for some time. In 14 SWS surveys from December 2004 to June 2008, it was neutral seven times and poor seven times. The -21 of June 2008 was the all-time record low since 1989.

Yet not all is gloomy. In some specific subject matters, the national administration is positively rated. Furthermore, in the SWS quarterly surveys of March 2008 and June 2008, all the subject matter ratings of the national administration improved (see our media release last July 28).

In particular, it went from neutral to moderate in “helping the poor” (from +7 to +15), in “foreign relations” (from +4 to +13), in “reconciliation with Muslim rebels” (from +3 to +10), and in “fighting terrorism” (from +5 to +10). The administration’s ratings rose in “distributing lands to deserving tillers” (from +4 to +8) and in “ensuring that medicines are affordable” (from -9 to +4), even though they stayed in the neutral category.

The “fighting crime” rating improved from a poor -10 to a neutral +4. The numbers improved from -26 to -18 in “ensuring that no family will be hungry,” and from -29 to -22 in “eradicating graft and corruption,” even though they stayed in the poor category. The “fighting inflation” rating improved from a bad -32 to a merely poor -16.

Other top officials. In other ratings of June 2008, Vice President Noli de Castro’s +37 is good. Senate President Manny Villar’s +52 is very good, and the Senate’s +27 is “upper-moderate.”

On the other hand, House Speaker Prospero Nograles’ -15 is poor, and the House of Representatives’ +10 is “lower-moderate.” Chief Justice Reynato Puno’s +3, and the Supreme Court’s +6, are neutral.

The Cabinet’s June 2008 rating is a neutral -9. In 12 surveys from August 2005, it has been neutral 10 times and poor twice.

Despite currently weak governance, Filipinos prefer democracy. Satisfaction with “the way democracy works” is a standard opinion poll item in many countries. In the Philippines, the percentage peaked at 70 in September 1992 and July 1998, after the presidential elections, and hence its mere 44 in June 2004 was disappointing. It fell to a record low 28 in November 2003, and recovered to 54 in June 2007 after the last election (see SWS report of Sept. 11, 2007).

Satisfaction with how democracy works has fallen again to only 31 percent last June. Nevertheless, 49 percent of Filipinos still say that democracy is always best, compared to 23 percent who say authoritarianism is better at times, and a remainder who say it doesn’t matter for people like them. Filipino preference for democracy dominates in all areas and social classes.

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Obama’s lead widens. According to Slate Magazine’s Oct. 9 tally of US statewide opinion polls, there are 203 electoral college votes (EVs) safely Democrat, 117 leaning Democrat, 55 in tossup states, 5 leaning Republican, and 158 safely Republican.

Since it takes 270 EVs to win, this means that the Republicans must not only win all the tossups but also turn around a large segment of the states presently leaning Democrat. Here are the latest percentage point leads of Barack Obama in the major states leaning Democrat: Florida (27 EVs) +4.7, Ohio (20) +4.6, Michigan (17) +5.4, Washington (11) +5.9, Minnesota (10) +5.0, Wisconsin (10) +5.6, and Colorado (9) +4.6. Slate’s use of the term “leaning Democrat” looks conservative since a lead of four points would be called a win given a perfectly random sampling of only 625 respondents.

With respect to the second debate of the presidential candidates, 54 percent of Americans said Obama did better, whereas 30 percent said John McCain did better, according to an Oct. 7 CNN/Opinion Research Corporation nationwide poll of 675 adults (4-point error margin) who had watched it on television earlier that day.

The CNN/ORC poll of debate-watchers gave Obama the following edges over McCain as being better able to handle certain issues if he became President: “the economy” +22, “the current financial crisis” +21, and “the war in Iraq” +4. McCain had an edge of +5 in one issue, namely, “terrorism.”

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Contact SWS: www.sws.org.ph or mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph