Social Climate
For polling in Pampanga and Isabela
By Mahar Mangahas
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 02:01:00 09/06/2008
MANILA, Philippines—Again, a disclaimer: I am not angling for projects for Social Weather Stations (SWS) in any province. I simply believe that opinion polling at the local level, all over the country, is good for democracy.
Last Sunday, at the Ramon Magsaysay Awards ceremonies, I urged Isabela province’s Governor Grace Padaca—congratulations, “Bombo Grace,” for your 2008 RM award for government service—and Pampanga province’s Governor Ed Panlilio to foster scientific and open opinion polling in their provinces. I am not aware of this being done in either province.
Popular underdogs. It is widely conceded that Governors Padaca and Panlilio won their posts despite being heavily outmatched by the traditional politicians in guns, goons and gold. They won, simply because they were genuinely popular. Therefore scientific opinion polls would have shown them well ahead in their respective races prior to the election. These polls would have encouraged their followers, raised more resources for them, and generally helped them to win more easily.
That open opinion polling helps those who are more popular to win elections is thoroughly democratic. This explains why those who are unpopular, and yet think they should win through other means besides truly getting the most votes, are opposed to open opinion polling. The aim of open polling is not the tactical advantage of exclusive knowledge, but the political solidarity through collective knowledge, of what the social consensus really is.
Elected officials who exercise good governance are bound to remain popular, and be reelected. Governor Grace was reelected in 2007, and therefore she surely maintained her popularity with Isabelino (that’s her adjective) voters during her first term.
The recall move in Pampanga. Although Governor Ed took office only a year ago, his political opponents are already trying to subject him to a recall election. In other words, they are acting as though he has lost so much popularity with voters of Pampanga that, not only would enough voters sign a petition to force a recall, but that he would also lose in the recall election.
Well, if they are really so confident about it, then the anti-Panlilio forces should sponsor a reputable and credible academic research institution of Pampanga to do an open survey of how the provincial electorate rates his governance over the past year, including whether they would elect him again in case the recall move prospers. Do they lack the resources, or do they fear what the survey will reveal?
The pro-Panlilio forces, for their part, should likewise demonstrate their confidence in their leader by encouraging and, if possible, sponsoring open surveys of public opinion about the Panlilio administration. They should be interested, not only in the immediate task of opposing the recall move, but also in promoting good governance in the province up to 2010, and beyond.
A multiplicity of surveys doesn’t hurt; it helps. It produces clarification rather than confusion. The more opinion polls are done, the better for democracy. The genuine articles will drive the fakes out.
What’s easy, and what’s hard. Because the science of opinion polling is actually simple, I am confident that Pampanga has a number of academic institutes with the expertise to do it. The civil society organizations of Pampanga surely have good ideas as to who should do it.
Local institutes always have the advantage over external institutes when it comes to framing a relevant survey agenda. A Metro Manila based institute like SWS can only make suggestions. It is common practice, for instance, to ask what is happening to the quality of life, and the quality of governance. What is the most important problem of the province? In particular, do the people approve of the illegal lottery “jueteng”? How many bet on it? How many depend on it for a living? Is it a “victimless crime”?
How much do people trust the governor? How about his political adversaries? How many have been asked to sign a recall petition? Were they given a chance to read it first? Did they, or might they, sign it? If a recall election is held, whom will they probably vote for? Any issue that might ultimately be settled by vote should be included.
I think that scientific surveys are affordable in a province like Pampanga. One could solicit contributions. One could field unpaid volunteers as interviewers, after giving them some training. What matters is to proceed with discipline. Follow the rules of random selection, without shortcuts. Apply the questionnaire strictly, without adlibs. Process the data carefully. Interpret the results honestly. Write up reports clearly, so that non-technicians will understand them. Archive the original data for ready retrieval, and have a system for sharing data with the academic community.
The critical aspects of opinion polling have to do with maintaining belief in democracy, having faith in the judgment of the electorate, courageously accepting the findings—not all of which will be palatable—and having the integrity to disseminate the whole truth to the public.
* * *
Local polls in the US. In the United States, incidentally, it is the local or statewide polls, and not the nationwide polls, that matter. Based on statewide polls, as of last Thursday, www.slate.com counted 180 electoral college votes as safely Democrat, 70 as leaning Democrat, 84 as tossups, 113 as leaning Republican, and 78 as safely Republican. It only takes 270 electoral college votes to win, so as of now Barack Obama has a big lead.
* * *
Contact SWS: www.sws.org.ph or mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph
|
