Betting the future: What if?

BY THIS time, you may already have decided on your presidential candidate. Business schools recommend asking one final question to confirm or counter a decision: What if I am wrong?

Indeed, what if recent revelations about your candidate are true? What are the risks of electing this candidate?

Following his charges of unreported income and misdeclared statements of assets, liabilities and net worth, Sen. Antonio Trillanes has filed a plunder case against Mayor Rodrigo Duterte for ghost employees, thus advancing the narrative that Duterte may be both a human rights violator and corrupt. Unusually, Sen. Alan Cayetano, who has pursued Vice President Jejomar Binay for corruption, is silent, finding himself now paired with the patriarch of “the Binays of Davao.”

The last presidential debate, held in Dagupan, added little information on Duterte’s plans for realizing his extravagant promises. Adversaries spared him further grilling on his “Dapat ang mayor ang mauna” comment on the rape of an Australian missionary, which did say something about his views on the perks of public office.

But it exposed personality and character traits consistent with the diagnosis of Dr. Natividad Dayan, former president of the International Council of Psychologists, and with Duterte’s way of dismissing accusations leveled at him. He applies laws selectively because his ends justify his means. Rejecting laws against extrajudicial executions, Duterte now invokes laws that protect the privacy of his bank accounts.

The medical assessment, reported by Aaron Lozada of ABS-CBN News, came from documents presented for the civil annulment of Duterte’s marriage with his first wife. It concluded that he suffered from “‘antisocial narcissistic personality disorder,’” a condition characterized by “‘gross indifference, insensitivity and self-centeredness,’ ‘grandiose sense of self-entitlement and manipulative behaviors’ and ‘pervasive tendency to demean, humiliate others and violate their rights and feelings.’” (https://k2.abs-cbnnews.com/halalan2016/focus/04/19/16/understanding-duterte-what-a-psych-report-says)

The biggest damage Duterte suffered in Dagupan was inflicted by his statements giving credence to the psychological diagnosis. He said he would copy ideas from his opponents; he was used to “copying” (i.e., cheating) since he was in Grade One. The retort to Mar Roxas’ offer of data on PhilHealth did sound like something from a grade school playground: Without providing any data of his own, Duterte roughly responded with “I don’t believe you.” And then there was his plan to invite martyrdom by jetskiing to the nearest Chinese reclamation area in the West Philippine Sea to plant the Philippine flag, because he wanted to do something heroic.

The debate raised serious issues that Duterte himself had emphasized. First was security, but beyond protection from criminal elements, on which he has focused. It also includes economic security, and workers’ need for better-paying, more secure jobs that will enable them to support their families.
Pangasinan fishermen, appealing for assistance against Chinese ships barring them from traditional fishing grounds in the West Philippine Sea, underlined the link between national and economic security. Climate change, felt by the Kidapawan farmers suffering from the drought triggered by El Niño, has elevated security to the planetary level. On both issues, we need the diplomatic support of allies, whom Duterte has disrespected.

Force cannot be the main response to all aspects of security, nor to the electorate’s concern for inclusive economic development. We have made progress in expanding economic opportunities, improving the delivery of social services, and controlling corruption. Much remains to be done; the gains have left the lives of many people untouched. But compare the record of the last six years with the preceding 12 years of the Estrada-Arroyo administrations.

History shows no shortcut to secure, inclusive prosperity. Its achievement depends on enduring commitment to the rule of law and democratic values and on leaders who can be trusted not to reverse the policies that have made a measure of success possible, so that we can build on what has been achieved.

“Daang matuwid” has helped enable the country’s economic performance. Granting that many more deserve prosecution, when have we seen so many “big fish” brought before the courts? What if, on the pretext of promoting unity, Duterte’s intent is to bury with Ferdinand Marcos’ body in the Libingan ng mga Bayani the cases against the Napoles plunderers, the recovery of the wealth plundered during martial law, the assorted scams during the Arroyo administration, and the prosecution of those responsible for the Ampatuan massacre?
Will a Duterte presidency unite the nation? Consider his take-no-prisoner orientation and his Lone Ranger approach to contentious national issues, including negotiations with the National Democratic Front and with China. What if, now armed with the powers of the presidency, he continues this management style and policy thrust? What if, as Sen. Miriam Santiago declared, he is the New People’s Army’s candidate? The Skype consultations with the NDF demonstrated Duterte giving greater respect to Joma Sison than he showed to Pope Francis.

The results of this election will maintain or diminish the momentum for progress. Voters must consider what risks they are taking with their candidate. Can they risk the future on this decision?

Edilberto C. de Jesus ([email protected]) is professor emeritus at the Asian Institute of Management. Prof. Rofel Brion’s Tagalog translation of this column and others earlier published, together with other commentaries, are in https://secondthoughts.ph.