Popularity vs party machinery

DEPENDING on the survey results you read, it’s either Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte or Sen. Grace Poe who’s leading in the race for the presidency.

The other candidates—Vice President Jejomar Binay, Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago and former interior secretary Mar Roxas—reportedly trail them as the campaign goes to the homestretch.

The number of respondents interviewed and the margin of error in the results of the surveys vary depending on the methodology used and the instructions of the party that commissioned it.

The candidates’ rankings, which change from time to time, have been analyzed by political commentators. Although they have different analyses, they all agree that the election results will be too close to call. Differences of one or two percentage points in the rankings have been described as “statistical ties” and, given the margin of error, are not considered significant.

Noticeably, scant attention has been given to a significant factor in voter preference surveys—the undecided voters, or voters who have not made up their mind on who to vote for president.

According to survey reports, approximately 20 percent of registered voters have yet to decide on their choice for president. Since there are 54.4 million registered voters in this year’s polls, that percentage represents, more or less, 10.9 million voters.

The Commission on Elections expects a high voter turnout on May 9 because, historically, voter turnout is usually high during a presidential election. This may be attributed to the Filipinos’ belief that the president plays a significant, if not pivotal, role in the country’s social, political and economic development, and so they want to participate in his or her election.

Even if only one-half of the undecided voters opt to vote, their votes can spell the difference between victory and defeat in the tightly-contested election anticipated on May 9. They constitute the “silent minority” whose votes could validate or disprove the survey results.

To be able to tap into this big pool of voters, the candidates have to find out first who or where they are and persuade them to look favorably at their candidacies. Then, on Election Day, they should convince them to leave the comfort of their homes and join the crowd in the precincts to cast their votes.

This is where the candidates’ party machinery becomes significant, if not essential. There have to be people on the ground who will make sure that the party’s supporters, and undecided voters, go out and vote for their candidates.

Before hubris gets the better of the candidates who enjoy good ratings in the surveys, they should be aware that popularity does not automatically translate to votes.

The voters’ favorable response to their candidacy on the day the survey was conducted may be good for that day only. A lot of things can happen between that day and Election Day that may make them change their mind.

There is also no assurance that the voter who earlier expressed in a survey interview his or her choice for president will pursue that posture to its logical conclusion by actually voting for him or her.

The challenge to the perceived frontrunners in the presidential race is to see to it that the voters who ticked them off as their choice for president will walk their talk on May 9.

All the candidates claim to have the support of their parties or political alliances. They have boasted of regional or provincial bailiwicks, statements of support from religious, business and labor organizations, and endorsements from prominent political personalities.

But whether these political ties and expressions of support will bring in the votes needed to propel them to victory is a big question mark.

As things stand at present, only two parties—the Liberal Party which supports Roxas’ candidacy and the United Nationalist Alliance whose standard-bearer is Binay—have the organization or machinery that can ensure that their supporters, and, where possible, the undecided voters, go to the polls and cast their votes.

Although Poe enjoys the support of some stalwarts of the Nationalist People’s Coalition, there are no indications that the party, as a whole, has put its resources behind her candidacy.

In Duterte’s case, his party, Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan, is a shadow of its old self when it was the dominant political party during the administration of President Cory Aquino.

With regard to the People’s Reform Party of Defensor-Santiago, its viability is in serious doubt considering that it has been moribund since her two failed attempts to win the presidency. Her running mate, Sen. Ferdinand Marcos Jr., does not appear inclined to contribute some financial muscle to her party.

In a few days, we will know whether, in this age of social media and smartphones, elections can be won on the basis of sheer popularity, or the party machinery is still a force to reckon with in the political exercise.

Either way it goes, what matters is that the voter makes his or her voice heard on May 9.

Raul J. Palabrica (rpalabrica@inquirer.com.ph) writes a weekly column in the Business section of the Inquirer.