What good governance can do

THIS WEEK, a 10-year-old paper reminded me about how, not so long ago, the Quality of Life (QOL) of Filipinos was dismal.

(The paper is “Two Decades of Social Weather Reporting in the Philippines” by Linda Luz B. Guerrero and myself, in the book “Barometers of Quality of Life Around the Globe: How Are We Doing?” edited by Valerie Møller, Denis Huschka and Alex C. Michalos, Springer Publications, 2008. It was originally presented at the conference of the International Society for Quality of Life Studies, or ISQOLS, in Durban, South Africa, July 19-20, 2006.)

Social Weather Stations (www.sws.org.ph) is a nonstock, nonprofit private scientific institute whose mission is to produce a steady stream of survey-based national statistics on QOL in the Philippines. The SWS surveys of adults were semiannual in 1986-91, and have been quarterly since 1992. SWS has also surveyed enterprise managers 12 times from 2000 to 2015.

SWS surveys of adults. Together with poverty, hunger, satisfaction with life, happiness, crime-victimization, past and future trends in personal QOL, satisfaction with democracy, public opinion on major issues, and other items, the SWS surveys have always included satisfaction with governance. Indeed, the governance indicators are probably the most eagerly awaited of the SWS statistics each quarter.

Since 1986, the Philippines has had five presidents, of whom the third and fourth, Joseph Estrada and Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, were great disappointments. At the 2006 ISQOLS conference, SWS reported that economic and social wellbeing were in a poor state, and that public satisfaction with governance was at a historical low. We never had a president so unpopular for so long.

Since mid-2010, however, under President Benigno S. Aquino III, the QOL radically improved. His honeymoon with the people lasted five years; last December his net satisfaction rating was still a Good +32.

I will quote here (in italics) the exact captions of some tables of the 2006 paper, and compare them with the situation today.

“Hunger went from a record low in mid-2003 to a record high in late 2005.” The average annual hunger rate continued to rise, up to 19.9 percent in 2012, but ultimately went over the hump and was only 13.4 percent in 2015. It was 12 percent (of households) last December.

“Self-rated poverty is volatile; the recent trend is up.” In the mid-2000s, the percentage of self-rated poor households was in the mid-50s; by the third and fourth quarters of 2015, it was a flat 50.

“Quality of Life losers have exceeded 40% for the past 7 years.” In 2005, losers were 44 percent and gainers were only 19 percent. In December 2015, losers were down to 27 percent and gainers were up to 31 percent.

“Quality of Life pessimists were a record 34% in March 2005.” A decade ago, 30 percent expected their quality of life to improve, and 23 percent expected it to deteriorate, or a mediocre net +7. Last December, optimism reached 45 percent, and pessimism was only 5 percent, for a new record high net +40.

“Most are dissatisfied with national administration performance on fighting inflation, corruption, and crime.” Ten years ago the net satisfaction ratings on those three matters were -39, -34 and -8 respectively, all negative. Last December the three ratings were -7, -1, and +3 respectively, classified as “neutral” yet much improved from a decade ago.

“Satisfaction with the national administration is positive on foreign relations; it has become negative on how much it helps the poor.” Ten years ago, the net satisfaction rating on foreign relations was +23, or “moderate”; most recently it was a “good” +35. The net rating on helping the poor had been a neutral -4 before; now it has become a “good” +36.

“Satisfaction with how democracy works is low, but preference for democracy is still strong.” Ten years ago, the satisfaction with the working of democracy was 44 percent; now it is 76 percent. The old percentage scores of preference of democracy to authoritarianism used to be 58 against 19; now they are 58 against 18, or as strong as before.

“Two-thirds are very/fairly satisfied with life.” A decade ago, it was 66 percent. In 2015 it became 88 percent, or almost nine of every ten adults.

“Three-fourths feel very/fairly happy.” A decade ago, it was 76 percent. In 2015 it became 85 percent.

SWS surveys of enterprises. Earlier this year, I wrote (“Corruption has not risen,” Opinion, 2/6/16): “The surveys of enterprises show that Filipino managers’ experiences of public sector corruption have declined. ‘On the whole, the 2014/15 survey shows continued progress against corruption since 2013, after the quantum leap in 2012. This is based on corruption as experienced, and not merely as perceived, by the responding business executives. … A repeated record-low 44 percent said that they had been solicited for a bribe, in the past year, in at least one of seven itemized transactions with the government. This equaled the 44 percent in 2013, which was down from 50 percent in 2012 and 60 percent in 2009.’”

Most dramatic was the change in the (net) rating by business managers of the sincerity of the Office of President in fighting corruption: from a “bad” -37 in 2009 to an “excellent” +80 in 2012. (No enterprise surveys were done in 2010-11, for lack of funds.)

Although the P-Noy administration has not been perfect, I think the big challenge now is whether the next administration of 2016-22 can do as well.
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