In the national interest?

THE PROPOSED Bangsamoro Basic Law that is up for deliberation by Congress presents a conundrum for the nation and the Aquino administration. This legislation for the creation of a new homeland for the Moros in Mindanao was the product of years of peace negotiations between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and the Philippine government.

The peace process took a critical turn with President Aquino’s assumption into office. In the first months of his administration, he met with MILF chair Murad Ebrahim in Tokyo, Japan, in an attempt to jump-start the peace talks. The talks had bogged down in 2008 after the Supreme Court struck down as unconstitutional the Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain (MOA-AD) between the government and the MILF. The ruling came amid vehement public opposition to and protests against the MOA-AD within and outside Mindanao.

The same uncertainty now hangs over the proposed BBL which faces stiff opposition in Congress. The BBL’s passage before Congress adjourns in July 2015 appears unlikely. There is also the eventuality that certain groups would contest it before the Supreme Court, once the bill is finally signed into law.

On the other hand, one scenario that is likely to happen in case the BBL suffers legislative or judicial rejection would be a renewed call to battle coming from the MILF ranks, like what happened in 2008 when the so-called “rogue” MILF units ravaged central and northern Mindanao after the Supreme Court ruling on the MOA-AD. A rejection of the BBL could trigger another cycle of violence in which the region and the Moros have suffered for decades. There will be no winners in the renewed fighting; only losers.

In a sense, the realization of a new Bangsamoro political entity would be a step toward breaking the cycle of violence that has bedeviled Mindanao, where majority of Moro communities remain mired in poverty; and where the country has spent and lost billions of pesos and other resources, material and human, not to mention the suffering that thousands of families have gone and are still going through. Keeping the status quo—that is, by rejecting the BBL—not only could lead to a new era of belligerence between the government and the Moro masses; it would deny new generations of Mindanaoans the blessings of progress and genuine peace. Bear in mind that whoever would succeed President Aquino may not be as personally committed and dedicated to pushing for peace in Mindanao.

President Aquino in meeting with MILF’s Murad (twice so far in Japan) to work on the kinks of the peace negotiation/settlement did what ordinarily would be considered unthinkable for the country’s highest official. He got criticized by politicians and media commentators for breaking presidential protocol. But it was this move that revealed the intentions of his presidency and gave impetus, through the next four years, the peace negotiations between the Philippine government and the MILF, which in turn produced the BBL now in Congress for approval.

One can say that President Aquino by his actions, specifically by resolutely pursuing the cause of peace in Mindanao, has placed his legacy or reputation on the line. This in a sense is the rationale behind the Aquino administration’s strong push for the BBL’s passage in Congress. Yet President Aquino’s personal involvement, at the same time, opens the proposed law to certain vulnerabilities.

There is no doubt that opposition against the BBL—in the sense that it is unconstitutional; that it gives too much to the Moro people; that it denies Christians their rights, etc.—would be forthcoming and strong, be it in the halls of Congress or in mass media, or in the public arena, fora and rallies, or in community assemblies, up to the hallowed chambers of the Supreme Court. The intensity of the opposing views on the BBL could reach fever pitch such that even supporters of President Aquino may find themselves wavering as to whether to hold on to the course and be criticized as much as the President, thereby lose precious political capital while the election contest of 2016 looms in the horizon.

Then there are those who oppose President Aquino, politically and personally, and who would want to see the shelving of the BBL as a way of getting back at the President and, in effect, reduce his influence in the 2016 presidential election.

In the final reckoning, the BBL is a litmus test for a nation tired of war in Mindanao and for a President who wants to leave a legacy of peace. Will the Filipino people and their institutions—legislative, judiciary, church, business, civil society, the press—dare to take on a new path that may be rocky but promising; or revert back to the old order that breeds chaos but which we find tolerable, within our our comfort zones, because we have become used to it?

The Bangsamoro question is the Philippines at its crucible.

Dr. Rene Guioguio is a journalism professor at the UP College of Mass Communication, Diliman, and a graduate of the University of Washington in Seattle, where he completed his PhD in international communication.