Transition in P-Noy’s rating

From the time regular opinion polling began in 1986, the record for the longest presidential honeymoon goes to incumbent President Aquino. For 15 consecutive quarters, or just one quarter short of four years, P-Noy’s performance rating in the SWS surveys was no less than +42 (classified by SWS as “Good”; this was in May 2012), and went as high as +64 (“Very Good,” in November 2010).

P-Noy had long ago broken the record of Corazon C. Aquino, whose honeymoon of Goods or Very Goods lasted for three years, until she fell to +29 in September 1989. The honeymoon of Fidel V. Ramos lasted two and a half years, until he slumped to +24 in March 1995, in the wake of the Flor Contemplacion tragedy. The honeymoon of Joseph “Erap” Estrada lasted one year, until he hit +28 in October 1999. Gloria M. Arroyo had no honeymoon; her single Good was a +30 in March 2004.

Then, as released last Monday, P-Noy’s rating in the June 27-30, 2014 SWS survey, the 16th quarterly reading of his term, was down to a “Moderate” +25, for the Philippines as a whole. It was one grade below his Good +45 in March 2014. The drop by 20 points came from an 11-point fall in satisfaction, from 66 to 55 percent, combined with a 9-point rise in dissatisfaction, from 21 to 30 percent.

It happened in NCR/Luzon, not in Visayas/Mindanao.  Area-wise, the decline was most notable in the National Capital Region, where his rating fell from a Good +33 to a “Neutral” +6 (i.e., not statistically above zero). Since it skipped the category of Moderate, we call this a double-downgrade. The single downgrade in the Balance of Luzon, from a Good +41 to a Moderate +16, carried the national figure, due to the great weight of this area.

On the other hand, P-Noy’s grade fell only slightly in the Visayas, from +49 to +39, which means it stayed Good. In Mindanao, it fell from a Very Good +55 to a Good +40. Thus, defining a honeymoon as consecutive grades of Good or better, one can even say that, south of Luzon, P-Noy’s honeymoon goes on.

The marked change in the geographical pattern of P-Noy’s ratings suggests that, in searching for explanations—surely there are more than one—for the end of the long honeymoon, one should examine events in the NCR most of all, and then events elsewhere in Luzon.

In particular, people are always very sensitive to hikes in the cost of living.  In the second quarter of 2014,  was general inflation, and food-price inflation in particular, more severe in Metro Manila and Luzon than in the Visayas and Mindanao?

The urgency of recovery from the destruction caused by Supertyphoon “Yolanda” is another very strong national concern. If the government’s rehabilitation efforts have been inadequate, why was the drop in P-Noy’s rating in the Visayas, the most injured area, relatively mild?

Would the recent months’ developments in the pork barrel/Janet Napoles case, including the arrest of Senators Juan Ponce Enrile, Jinggoy Estrada and Bong Revilla, tend to diminish, rather than add to, public satisfaction with P-Noy?  If negative, why should their impact be much more intense in NCR/Balance of Luzon than in Visayas/Mindanao?

Probably not affected by the PDAF ruling. In the case of a purely national event like a Supreme Court ruling unfavorable to the administration, I would expect the impact to be broadly nationwide, rather than concentrated in some areas.

Let us recall that the Supreme Court ruling against the Priority Development Assistance Fund (PDAF) occurred eight months ago, in November 2013. The national performance rating of P-Noy was +49 in September 2013, and still +49 in December 2013—so there was no effect, or no effect yet, of the PDAF ruling. Then in March 2014 the national rating was +45, or only a little less than in December.

Area-wise, the changes from December to March were mixed: P-Noy’s rating rose in NCR (from +22 to +33), fell in the Balance of Luzon (from +54 to +41), hardly changed in the Visayas (from +50 to +49), and rose in Mindanao (from +53 to +55).  This big variation across areas does not support the proposition that the PDAF ruling of November had an unfavorable national impact in the first quarter. The idea that the drop in P-Noy’s rating in the second quarter of 2014 is a delayed reaction to the PDAF ruling seems farfetched to me.

Too soon to be affected by the DAP ruling.  Furthermore, there is no reason to attribute the end of P-Noy’s honeymoon to the Supreme Court ruling against the Disbursement Acceleration Program (DAP). By the time the ruling was issued on July 1st, the field interviews for the June survey were finished; data processing was in progress. SWS will look into public reactions to the DAP ruling in its third quarter survey, to be fielded in October.

What’s next? We have seen that P-Noy’s honeymoon was unusually long. When a honeymoon ends, what normally happens to a presidential rating? Cory Aquino, whose first non-honeymoon rating was +29 in September 1989, averaged +18 from then on to the end of her term, and ended at a Neutral +7. Fidel Ramos, at +24 in March 1995, averaged +24 thenceforth, and ended at a Moderate +19—the best post-honeymoon performance, and the best finish, so far.

Erap Estrada, at +28 in October 1999, averaged +13 from then on, and ended at a Neutral +9 in December 2000.  The honeymoon-less Gloria Arroyo averaged a Neutral -7 in over nine years in office, and ended at a Poor -17.

Whether P-Noy’s performance in his final two years in office will be akin to any of his four predecessors, or will set new records, will be seen in the opinion polls to come.

* * *

Contact mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.