Milestones to mark

Despite the media’s traditional and light-hearted recourse to fortune tellers and fearless forecasts at the start of the year, nobody really knows what the new year will bring. At best, these predictions are an entertaining exercise in extrapolation; at worst, they offer a false certainty. In reality, the most anyone can do is to prepare for events that are already penciled in, or suggested by, the calendar.

In the middle of February, for instance, the country will mark the 100th day of Supertyphoon “Yolanda’s” catastrophic landfall; many humanitarian and aid organizations see this milestone as the right time to assess whether the post-Yolanda rehabilitation program is well and truly in place. The national government’s comprehensive Reconstruction Assistance on Yolanda, or RAY, will come in for extraordinary scrutiny. But—learning from the sorry example of Haiti in 2010—this is also an opportune time to make an accounting of the pledges the humanitarian and aid organizations made.

By the end of March, the Philippines must submit its Memorial, its pleadings in full, to the Arbitral Tribunal convened under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea to arbitrate on the country’s maritime dispute with China. This is an excellent opportunity both to test China’s expansive claims to almost all of the South China Sea and to elevate the increasingly acrimonious dispute to a higher plane, that of international law. We realize that China remains resolutely against participation in the arbitration process, and that the lawyer retained by the Philippines to serve as lead counsel, Paul Reichler, may have been merely playing mind games when he said that without China’s participation the case can be decided within 2014; nevertheless, the opportunity to counter Chinese brute force with legal reason is something to look forward to.

After the 150th birth anniversary of Jose Rizal was commemorated in 2011 and that of Andres Bonifacio in 2013, it is Apolinario Mabini’s turn. July 24 will allow us a closer look at the principal intellectual behind the Philippine Revolution, and one of the pioneering political theorists in all of Asia. The preparations have already begun, but we sense that there is very little continuity between the three commemorative rites. This is a pity, especially because in only five years the country will have to deal with the 150th birth anniversary of the more controversial Emilio Aguinaldo.

It looks like the last annex to the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro, on normalization, plus an addendum on Bangsamoro waters, will be concluded in the first half of the year. (That is certainly the hope.) But the negotiations with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front have gained enough momentum that the milestone to look forward to in 2014 is not the signing of the comprehensive peace pact, although that will be definitely historic, but the legislative deliberations on the Bangsamoro Basic Law, beginning in July. The government peace negotiator’s consultative stance, briefing key members of Congress after each negotiation milestone, will be put to the test when the second session of the 16th Congress convenes on July 28.

The Philippines will host the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in November next year yet, but preparations for one of the largest annual gatherings of world leaders have already begun. Unfortunately, it seems the country is better geared to handle one-off events, such as the Apec summit, than something longer-term and more complicated, such as the Asean Economic Community scheduled to commence next year. Judging by the general lack of stories in Philippine media on the Asean Economic Community and what it means, the country must be one of those least prepared for the change. We expect a bumpy transition.

Not least: There is also the distinct possibility that Pope Francis will visit the country this year, and not in 2016. That will upend many plans, including those of the Archdiocese of Cebu, which is already preparing to host the International Eucharistic Congress then. But then that is the nature of plans, fearless or otherwise.