The impeachment trial has not begun but it is already over 

The Senate stands at a precipice. Not because it faces an unprecedented constitutional crisis – though it does—but because the forthcoming impeachment trial of VP Sara Duterte has already been resolved before a single piece of evidence is presented, before a single witness takes the stand, before the people have had any meaningful opportunity to witness justice in action.

The timing is not coincidental. The orchestrated coup d’état within the Senate, represents nothing less than a catastrophic failure of institutional integrity and a direct assault on the rule of law.

The alignment of nine senators—a bloc sufficient to destabilize Senate leadership—reveals a chilling, undeniable truth . Governance has become transactional. Justice has become negotiable. This is not coincidence. This is coordinated self-preservation masquerading as political alliance.

To many Filipinos, the impeachment trial is already predetermined. Conviction requires 16 votes out of 24 senators , VP Sara Duterte needs only 9 votes to survive and this comes from her loyalists, Imee Marcos, Robin Padilla, Rodante Marcoleta, Ronald de la Rosa, Alan peter Cayetano  sister Pia Cayetano ,  Mark Villar and sister Camille Villar. 

The charges against VP Sara Duterte are serious, namely misuse of ₱612.5 million in confidential funds, unexplained wealth, bribery allegations and threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his family.  The House Committee on Justice voted unanimously to find probable cause. And they believe the  evidence is sufficiently compelling to warrant a trial.

But the numbers  today in the Senate tells us that it has already decided to acquit. 

Then  why would the Senate minority  need to change leadership if they were confident in a fair trial?  Why would they risk the political fallout of a “Senate coup” if they believed the evidence would speak for itself?

By attempting to replace Sotto and Pro Tempore Panfilo Lacson with leaders “more favorable to the Vice President,” the Duterte bloc has inadvertently revealed the truth: the outcome is predetermined, and they are willing to overturn constitutional procedures to ensure  or cement it.

The answer is very obvious : They know the evidence is damning. They know a fair trial would expose their ally. And they are willing to burn down constitutional norms to protect her.

Senator Erwin Tulfo’s warning is perceptive:  “The people will eventually ask why there is a need for a coup.” “The answer, whether the coup succeeds or fails, is the same: Because the trial cannot be allowed to proceed fairly”.

When senators decide in advance how they will vote, regardless of evidence, they transform themselves from judges into advocates. The Constitution becomes a dead letter.

And if this Vice President  can evade accountability through a predetermined acquittal, what prevents future officials  President or VP from doing the same? If the Senate becomes a tool for political protection rather than constitutional accountability, what institution remains to check executive power?

The answer: None. If this trial ends in acquittal—as all evidence suggests,  it will—the message is clear: Impeachment is not a mechanism for accountability. It is a mechanism for political theater.

The Filipino people are not foolish. They understand the mathematics. They see the alignment of senators. They recognize the attempted coup. And they know what it means: The trial is a sham. When citizens conclude that their government is fundamentally corrupt and unaccountable, they lose faith in democratic institutions. They begin to believe that power, not law, determines outcomes. 

Why would senators acquit VP Duterte?  

First is political calculation, Duterte remains a powerful political force and  Senators fear alienating her supporters and damaging their own political prospects in 2028.  Second , bloc politics: Nine senators form a protective bloc around Duterte. They vote as a unit, not as individual judges considering evidence. Third , self-preservation. Some of these senators face their own legal vulnerabilities. By protecting Duterte, they protect themselves.And fourth,  institutional weakness. As per record, the Senate has never successfully removed an elected official. The institution lacks the political will to impeach. 

None of these reasons are constitutional. None are defensible. All four reasons  are corrosive to the rule of law.

However, this impeachment trial  is not merely a domestic political event. The world is watching.  If the Senate acquits VP Duterte despite credible allegations of corruption, bribery, and threats against the President, it sends a message to the international community:  Our country does not have functioning institutions of accountability.

There is still an opportunity that this Senate impeachment trial will  have real meaning and gain legitimacy. But  these conditions must happen:

Senate President Sotto must remain in place. Pro Tempore Lacson must remain in place. The constitutional order must not be overturned to achieve a predetermined outcome.

All senators must commit to evidence-based voting, not political calculation. Those unwilling to make this commitment should recuse themselves. This is not an unreasonable demand. It is a basic requirement of judicial impartiality.

The trial must be public and transparent. Every hearing must be televised. Every piece of evidence must be presented publicly. Every senator’s vote must be recorded and explained. Secrecy breeds corruption. Transparency breeds accountability.

We must all understand that this trial is not a genuine proceeding. We must recognize the predetermined outcome. And we must hold our  senators accountable at the ballot box. Democracy does not end when trials are rigged. It ends when citizens accept the rigging as inevitable.

The Senate stands ready to acquit Vice President Sara Duterte. The mathematics make this inevitable. The politics make it necessary. The institutional weakness makes it possible.

But this acquittal will not be a legal decision. It will be a political one. It will not represent justice. It will represent the triumph of power over law.

When the Senate votes to acquit—as it surely will—it will not be because the evidence is insufficient. It will be because the Senate has decided that accountability is less important , and  that protecting allies is more important than defending the Constitution, that maintaining power is more important than preserving the rule of law.

This is not democracy. This is the slow, methodical surrender of democratic institutions to the logic of authoritarianism.

The trial has not yet begun. But it is already over.

And with it, perhaps, our democracy and the Republic.