Beat the heat
Peak electricity demand is just months away. It’s not yet officially summertime but, according tothe Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa),high heat indices of 33 to 45 degrees Celsius have already been hit in some parts of thePhilippines this year; falling between the “extreme caution” and “danger” categories. By the timeyou’re reading this, the heat indices may have already gone into deeper territory, with April andMay projected to be the warmest months.
For us consumers, increasing temperatures would mean more use of our electric fans and airconditioners to combat the heat, which — combined with other consumers doing the same —can result in higher aggregate demand for electricity, thinner supply-demand margins, andhigher prices. Case in point, the spike in temperature and, hence, demand last March 5, whichled to a yellow alert over the Luzon grid. The highest peak demand for the year thus far wasrecorded last March 6 at 12,467 megawatts but the Department of Energy forecasts a peak of14,769 megawatts for Luzon in mid-May.
Let us pray that the heat won’t result in more forced or unplanned outages of power plantsand/or transmission and distribution facilities, which will only exacerbate the strain on electricitysupply. The grid operator assured the public that there will be no supply issues, provided thatthere will be no sudden power outages. Still, they are correct to suggest that we must preparefor a “worst case scenario” of multiple red and yellow alerts.
For one thing, it is reasonable to expect that hydro power generation will be derated as hightemperatures would evaporate the reservoirs and reduce water supply. For context, around 59%of allocated water is used for hydro power generation; considered non-consumptive as thewater (if there is any) is returned to its source.
On average, hydro power accounted for 8.9% of gross energy generation in megawatt-hours(MWh) in 2024. But its contribution went as low as 4.1% in May 2024, the same month whenaggregate power generation was at its highest that year. On various dates between April to May 2024, seven hydro power plants were on forced outage due to “low water level and hydrological constraints”, costing the grid 440 megawatts. Recall that from April 16 to May 2024 the Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao grids experienced a collective total of 13 red alerts and 42 yellow alerts; albeit not all because of derated hydro power generation.
Much of the blame is summarily assigned to the large baseload power plants that are on forcedoutage; after all, they are indeed a big loss given the sheer amount of power they generate, withcoal alone already accounting for 62% of gross energy generation in MWh in 2024. Yet, let’s bemindful how these forced outages are really weather- or season-related. In fact, many hydroplants schedule their preventive maintenance procedures during the summer, when the watersupply is anticipated to be low.
While the situation might be ideal for solar power, its power generation capabilities (low capacityfactor; only 2.9% of gross energy generation in MWh in 2024) are not enough to supplement theloss in hydro power generation or any baseload plant on forced outage, much less support thegrid in a significant way at times of high demand.
With peak electricity demand expected soon, along with the probability of derated powergeneration, expect prices to go up. Again, the grid operator is correct to suggest that the countrywould be needing more baseload or “non-intermittent, non-variable” sources of power movingforward, especially during the summer months, for grid stability and reliability.
Amidst heightened electricity demand it is also wont to observe how power distributors —particularly private utilities and cooperatives — will prepare and respond. There is certainly morereason to worry more for some electric coops since, as I have pointed out in a previous article(“A power sector alphabet soup”), investments in upgrading their infrastructure have beenlacking. Specifically, it was found that, from 2022 to September 2024, seven electricitydistribution coops in the Panay and Guimaras grids only allocated 3.1-3.7% of their totalspending on infrastructure development; basically, just for maintenance and not really forupgrade.
As an example, consider the breakdown of the sole submarine cable transporting electricity tothe islands of Siargao and Bucas Grande last December, which isn’t an encouraging sign for itsresidents and tourists, especially as higher demand amidst the rising heat might be a new painpoint. Meanwhile, Samal, Davao del Norte must also be worried, with its mayor being critical ofits service provider, the Northern Davao Electric Cooperative Inc. or Nordeco, for unresolvedissues that cost the island economic losses of around P120-150 million annually since the2010s.
In contrast, the likes of MORE Electric and Power Corporation (MORE) and Davao Light andPower Company (DLPC) appear to be doing the right thing by continuing to invest in theirrespective distribution infrastructures to deliver more electricity for the customers they serve.MORE recently said that it has plans to rehabilitate and construct more substations in Iloilo City,while DLPC recently energized its Lanang Substation in a developing business district in DavaoCity, making it its sixth fully digital substation within its current franchise area.
Figuratively speaking, the heat is on; more so for power distributors if they are prompted toimplement a Manual Load Dropping (or in other words: rotational brownouts) due to tight supplyand demand conditions or, worse for them, if there is a breakdown in their power networkinfrastructure. After all, they are the ones who face the consumer. That’s why I call for powerdistributors to really prepare and be at their best, especially during the dry seasons, so that theblame game doesn’t fall squarely on them. Power distribution has to get better as the rest of theelectricity supply chain gets better. They should’ve invested in and started upgrading theirinfrastructure yesterday!
