Mail-in, early ballots to decide US polls

Tomorrow, Nov. 5, United States time, is the last day for the majority of Americans to cast their ballots in one of the most vicious and divisive elections in the history of the “Divided States of America,” as one commentator derisively called the USA. I said “majority” because a good number, about 68 million—per a Nov. 1 CBS News report—have mailed their ballots or have voted early in person. Their counting, however, will be made together with the ballots to be cast on Nov. 5.

IN THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, winner Joe Biden got 81,284,666 votes nationally and then reelectionist president Donald Trump, 74,224,319. More importantly, Biden garnered 306 electoral votes and Trump, 232. From these figures, the total votes cast were 155,508,985 rounded to 155.5 million.

With those figures as base, the mail-in (or postal) and early in-person ballots constitute about 43 percent, more or less, of the total votes cast and to be cast. I said “more or less” because the total number had probably changed. For this column, the change is irrelevant because these mail-in and early ballots, regardless of their increase, have decided the elections, given that all credible surveys place both candidates Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party and Donald Trump of the Republican Party even at 49 percent each nationally. The remaining two percent will therefore decide the election winner. In the past, the Democratic candidates always got more mail-in votes than the Republican nominee.

This is why the Republicans have historically been suspicious of mail-in and early ballots. And put a lot of doubts on the efficacy and delivery speed of the US Post Office. A few days ago, Trump already boisterously claimed, without proof, that the Pennsylvania (Penn) elections officials had already committed fraud on “a massive scale,” a charge that Penn Secretary of State Al Schmidt—a true-red Republican who supervises the elections—emphatically denied.

UNLIKE IN THE PHILIPPINES, US voters choose the “electors,” who in turn elect their president. Thus, the winning Republican electors would vote for Trump and the winning Democratic electors, for Harris.

The legislature of each of the 50 US states—plus the District of Columbia—determines by local law how the electors are to be chosen but the last day for casting ballots (Election Day) is fixed on the same day for all states: the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November. The winner takes office on Jan. 20 of the ensuing year.

Each state is allocated a number of electors in proportion to their population. California, the most populous, is given 55 while the least populous, Alaska, Montana, Wyoming, and Washington, are granted three each.

All in all, the “Electoral College” is composed of 538 electors. To win, a candidate must obtain at least 270 electoral votes. Most states, except for Maine and Nebraska, adopt the “winner-takes-all” rule, that is, the slate capturing a plurality of the popular vote wins all the electoral votes in that state.

WHY IS TRUMP SO FOCUSED ON PENN? Because in past elections, the winner in Penn with 19 electoral votes carried the presidency. It has become the election barometer. Of course, there are six other “battleground or swing states,” Arizona (with 11 electoral votes), Georgia (16), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Michigan (15), and Wisconsin (10), or a total of 93.

Election after election, the other 43 states and the DC are said to be predictable, with the Democrats getting 226 electoral votes and the Republicans, 219. The race to 270 votes is really to capture enough of the seven swing states, and Penn is the most crucial.

IN AN INTERVIEW ON OCT. 26 by podcaster Michael Smerconish, Postmaster General Louis DeJoy openly admitted being a Republican. However, he avowed objectivity and fairness. He also confirmed his testimony before the US Congress that, “… First-Class Mail during Fiscal Year 2024 is being delivered on-time 94.29 percent of the time, with 96.71 percent delivered within a day of our standard. On average, it is being delivered in just 1.3 days. Election Mail sent via Marketing Mail is being delivered on-time 97.67 percent of the time, with 99.27 percent delivered within a day of our standard. On average, it is being delivered in just 2.1 days over the same period.”

Based on the average delivery rate of 2.1 days, it follows that the actual election results will not be known till after 2.1 days, contrary to the usual finish on the day after the elections, unless by some quirk either candidate, contrary to the surveys, walks away with the 270 electoral votes from the non-swing states.

Either way, a deeply divided United States will make history: by electing its first woman president, its first noncolored rooted in South Asia, a prosecutor, or by granting billionaire Trump, a Caucasian male, the oldest presidential candidate ever, an inveterate liar, a “fascist,” and a convict (with pending appeals) a triumphant comeback.

The choice belongs to the American voters (especially to those who have already voted by mail or in person), but the ramifications will stir the world including the Philippines.

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