Backsliding in hunger

The 22.9 percent of households that experienced hunger in the third quarter was the second-highest national hunger rate in Social Weather Stations (SWS) history (“Hunger rises to 22.9% in September 2024 from 17.4% in June 2024,” www.sws.org.ph, 10/17/24).

Last September’s survey was the latest of an unbroken string of 106 SWS quarterly surveys of hunger, using the same (original) questionnaire and survey design, ever since July 1998. The series is meant to continue indefinitely.

The hunger question is addressed to the household head, thus: Nitong nakaraang tatlong buwan, nangyari po ba kahit minsan na ang inyong pamilya ay nakaranas ng gutom at wala kayong makain? The key word, “gutom,” is the pain of hunger. The final three words are what specify that the hunger experience is involuntary.

The new survey finding was second only to the catastrophic 30.7 percent hunger rate of September 2020, during the pandemic lockdown— the report’s Table 1 has the full 29-year series.

The annual average hunger of the four quarterly surveys had come down to only 9.3 percent in 2019, the year before the pandemic. It suddenly zoomed to 21.1 in 2020. Then the average subsided, to 13.1 in 2021, 11.7 in 2022, and 10.7 in 2023. The years 2021-2023 were a steady recovery, just short of the position in 2019.

Unfortunately, the trend reversed in the fourth quarter of 2023 (“Setback in hunger,” inquirer.net, 1/27/24). In 2024’s first three quarters, the average is at 18.2. It is a far cry from pre-pandemic hunger, and a throwback to the hungry years of 2006-2014, when the average percentage hungry was between 15 and 19.

Four consecutive quarterly jumps in hunger. The national hunger percentage has now risen four consecutive times: (a) from 9.8 in September 2023 to 12.6 last December, and then (b) to 14.2 last March, (c) 17.6 last June, and (d) 22.9 last September.

That adds up to a large 13.1-point increase over four quarters, punctuated by the 5.3-point-leap from June to September. By the way, a single point amounts to 277,000 households, based on the 27.7 million households officially projected for mid-2024; one decimal point is a meaningful 27,700 households.

The error margin of each national estimate is plus/minus 3 points. This means that the first and second quarterly jumps were, separately, within the margin for sampling error; but together the two jumps were significant. Then both the third and fourth jumps were well above the error margin. This means that hunger is not merely increasing; it is accelerating.

Severe hunger was experienced by 6.1 percent. Those who say they have experienced hunger are asked if it happened minsan lang, mga ilang beses, madalas, o palagi? This results in breaking the latest 22.9-point hunger rate into 16.8 points of moderate hunger and 6.1 points of severe hunger, where “moderate” means hungry only once or a few times, and ‘severe’ means often or always.

The latest moderate and severe hunger rates are both the second-highest since the pandemic peaks in September 2020, when they were respectively 22.0 and 8.7, or a total of 30.7.

These are quite far from the pre-pandemic (2019) averages of 9.3 total, with 7.9 moderate and 1.4 severe. They are a serious setback from last year’s (2023) averages of 10.7 total, with 9.1 moderate and 1.5 severe.

Hunger virtually doubled in Mindanao and Visayas in 2024Q3. Area-wise, the latest backsliding happened in the South. From June to September, the hunger percentage went from 15.7 to 30.7 in Mindanao, and from 13.7 to 26.0 in Visayas. It went from 20.0 to 21.7 in the National Capital Region (NCR), and from 19.6 to 18.1 in Balance Luzon, which are insignificant changes.

The latest hunger rates are quite far from the average hunger percentages before the pandemic (2019), which were 11.3 in NCR, 9.9 in Mindanao, 9.2 in Visayas, and 8.5 in Balance Luzon.

For a change, NCR does not have the worst total hunger in the latest survey. Nevertheless, NCR is the worst in severe hunger, at 8.3 percent, versus 6.7 in Mindanao, 6.0 in Visayas, and 5.1 in Balance Luzon.

This is no time to relax. Although the rate of inflation in the cost of living has calmed recently, apparently it has not been deep enough or lasted long enough to stem the rise in the people’s hunger.

Have there been an unexpectedly large number of typhoons in the past year? The relationship between social history and meteorological history is a researchable topic.

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Team Asia defeats Team Europe for the first Reyes Cup. After three days, Team Asia, guided by Efren “Bata” Reyes, had a huge 9-3 lead in matches won in this four-day, race-to-11 event (“The inaugural Reyes Cup,” 10/19/24). Team Europe fought hard on the last day, when it took 5 matches for Team Asia to take the Cup, 11-6. Team Asia won’t be underestimated next year.

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