Caught between the US and China

Today is Philippine-American Friendship Day, a day that commemorates the long-standing friendship between the Philippines and its former colonial master, the United States.

In the US, today is Independence Day, its 248th anniversary. It would be a day of parades, fireworks display, cookouts, and other social activities for most Americans, including some 4.5 million Filipino-Americans.

For 18 years, since the US relinquished its control over the Philippines on July 4, 1946, the same date was observed in our country as Independence Day.

In 1964, then President Diosdado Macapagal moved that occasion to June 12 to coincide with that day in 1898 when Gen. Emilio Aguinaldo declared the independence of the Philippines from Spain. The idea was, independence is gained, not given by someone else.

From thereon, June 12 has been observed as an official holiday.

High regard for the US

The change in dates has not diminished the esteem or high regard by majority of Filipinos for the US. To date, it is a preferred destination for immigration and advanced academic studies.

Despite past disagreements on foreign affairs and economic policies, the US has, up to the present, been looked up to as a big brother who will come to the aid of its former colonial ward when the need arises.

The past administration made an effort to wean the Philippines away from the influence of the US by promoting—almost to the point of subservience—closer diplomatic and economic relations with China.

Unfortunately, then President Rodrigo Duterte’s expectation that playing footsie with China would result in massive financial grants and assistance did not materialize. Except for three infrastructure projects that took years to plan, the promised manna from the Middle Kingdom did not come.

Worse, in a fit of lunacy, he publicly disavowed and belittled the favorable decision of an international arbitral court on the rights of the Philippines over certain islands in the West Philippine Sea that China had encroached on.

Preferential treatment

That preferential treatment for China underwent a 180-degree turn when President Marcos came to power in 2022. He renewed and strengthened relations with the US and agreed to give the US military access to several strategic areas in the country.

Without being open about it, it was apparent the expansion of US military presence in the country is aimed at putting a counterweight to China’s aggressive actions in this part of the world.

More so against the Philippines whose rights over its exclusive economic zone had been (and continues to be) infringed on by China in a clear show of defiance of the arbitral ruling on the West Philippine Sea.

Having no match to China’s military might and finding no support from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations whose other members have been cowed to silent submission by China’s economic clout, the Philippines had no one to run to for assistance except the US.

Paradigm shift

The paradigm shift in relations with the US by Mr. Marcos has won the approval of majority of Filipinos.

The survey report released by Oculum, a research and analytics company, last April showed that 43 percent of Filipinos said the country should align with the US and only 3 percent preferred that the Philippines side with China.

According to Joseph Mercado, Oculum’s chief statistician, “the low level of trust in China and a relatively high level of distrust could be attributed to geopolitical tension, economic competition, territorial disputes, or concerns over political and human rights issues.”

That level of mistrust is expected to go higher in the face of reports of China’s use of violent means to prevent the Philippine military from supporting its troops on a ship stationed at Ayungin Shoal and Filipino fishermen from fishing at the Bajo de Masinloc reef.

Deft strategic move

Only time will tell whether the pivot to the US would be in the best interests of the Philippines or, as some critics of that move had said, would put the Philippines in the middle of a possible armed conflict between the US and China.

As the principal architect of Philippine foreign policy, Mr. Marcos has to navigate his way between protecting the country’s territorial expanse without provoking China into taking more aggressive steps to assert its sovereignty over islands it claims to be historically its own.

Although aligning the Philippines with the US may be considered a deft strategic move in the face of China’s belligerent acts, the President has to make sure that in doing so, the country would not be used as a staging ground for the test of military might between the two countries.

It’s a tight squeeze that calls for foresight and skillful maneuvers.