Zero-sum game for the Marcoses and Dutertes?

And so it has come to pass. On Nov. 22, 2021, two years ago today, I wrote a piece entitled “The prodigal daughter” where I foretold the fate that has now befallen Vice President Sara Duterte. I made the prediction at that time when, notwithstanding her clear lead in the surveys, Duterte agreed to give way to Ferdinand Marcos Jr., and run as the latter’s vice president in the 2022 elections. I said then: “Sara will realize that as a vice president who may end up not deeply allied with the president, she would be inconsequential … By choosing to run as vice president, she has taken herself out of the picture, out of the game, and she has rendered herself unimportant.”

After benefitting from the immense voters appeal of the Duterte name, and getting itself installed as this country’s new ruling family, the Marcos clan has started to get VP Sara out of the picture, out of the game, and render her inconsequential. VP Sara has been denied access to the public treasury because she has been stripped of confidential funds. Her allies in the House of Representatives have been removed from key positions. Threats of impeachment against her in the lower House have rendered her on the defensive, and have diminished her stature and influence among local leaders, voters, and potential financial backers. More recently, lawmakers are now coming out in the open urging the Marcos administration to fully cooperate with the International Criminal Court (ICC) in its investigation on the crimes against humanity committed by the Duterte patriarch.

President Marcos and House Speaker Martin Romualdez have both denied that there’s any impeachment move against VP Sara. But the denial is nothing but laway (saliva). Actions do the real talking. What are more telling are the numerous moves that have been taken against VP Sara that are meant to cut her down to size.

VP Sara and her father have both declared that the former has no ambitions of running for president in 2028. On the other hand, Speaker Romualdez has dismissed as mere rumors reports that he will gun for the nation’s top post in 2028. As we say in the vernacular, “Lokohin ninyo Lelong ninyo! (Fool your own grandfathers!)” In the twisted world of Philippine politics, a denial to run is the surest confirmation that one will gun for the presidency in the next elections.

From the Duterte camp, VP Sara will no doubt run as a presidential candidate in 2028. From the Marcos camp, Speaker Romualdez appears to be moving heaven and earth to become the candidate of the Marcos camp in 2028. Romualdez may just be a strawman aspirant and a more viable presidential contender may end up being the Marcos clan’s nominee eventually. But for sure, the Marcoses will put up and throw their full weight behind a candidate of their choice, and from all indications, it will not be VP Sara.

What are the advantages and disadvantages of both sides? VP Sara will get support from China because the latter will want the Philippines to go back to treating itself as a province of China. The failures of the Marcos administration (on its election promises, on the nondistribution of Marcos gold, and the economic hardship felt by everyone) will spell advantage for the Duterte camp. Voters who still yearn for a strongman leader—and who view Mr. Marcos as a letdown—will go for VP Sara. Military and police personnel, who were pampered by the Duterte administration at the absurd expense of compromising our country’s financial health, will be expected to support VP Sara.

The Marcos camp candidate will draw support from the United States and western countries because a Philippines that stands up to China will serve their political and economic interests. Public funds and the entire government machinery will be used to the hilt in support of the Marcos candidate. Leftist groups will support the Marcos nominee because the return of the Dutertes will hugely intensify killings in their ranks. Handing Rodrigo Duterte over to the ICC will be to the huge advantage of the Marcos candidate because it will gag the loudest and most effective mouth in the Duterte camp, and it will strip VP Sara of borrowed charisma.

What about the opposition? If no viable third-party contender stands up, an intact opposition can deliver the swing vote for either side. Given the opposition’s frame of mind, it will come down to a choice of the lesser evil.

It is gearing up to be zero-sum game between the Marcoses and the Dutertes. If the level and intensity of the current skirmishes continue, the Marcoses will need to totally insure that there will be no possibility for the Dutertes to return to power. If the Marcoses fail, they will experience the kind of vengeance that the Edsa People Power Revolution failed to exact from them.

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