Taking calculated risks to uphold PH sovereignty

In his first State of the Nation Address, President Marcos Jr. stated that he will “not preside over any process that will abandon even a square inch of the territory of the Republic of the Philippines to any foreign power.”

As the chief architect of Philippine foreign policy, the President made clear that on the issue of territorial integrity and sovereignty, the Philippines “will stand firm in our independent foreign policy, with the national interest as our primordial guide.” While no country or area was named, his statement is easily seen to refer to the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea (SCS/WPS) issue with China.

There appears to be a general consensus that diplomacy would be the primary means to carry out this policy, as it would not be in the country’s interest to end up in a war with China. On the need to avoid a war, there is the question of how aggressively we should exercise and uphold our sovereign rights in the contested areas in response to Chinese incursions and activities in our maritime waters and exclusive economic zone (EEZ). While we can go all out on the diplomatic front, enforcement of our maritime entitlements carries risk of an incident that could escalate to hostile actions by either party. It is this risk that is highlighted by those who argue that we should be restrained in our physical efforts to enforce our sovereignty in the WPS.

Diplomacy is indeed the best course of action, but it is limited in what it can do, considering China’s continuing aggression to show control over disputed areas, including harassing and preventing our fishermen from operating in our own EEZ.

The Philippines has to consistently challenge such incursions and violations of our territory and EEZ not only in the diplomatic arena, but on the seas as well. Otherwise, we will be ceding de facto control over those areas by default. I am confident that the Philippine Coast Guard and the Philippine military will carry out their duty if so ordered, as they have done so on previous occasions.

As for the risk that comes with this course of action, I believe it is worth taking when national interest and sovereignty are at stake. In the debate on this issue, the risk of war is highlighted along with the notion that we stand no chance against the Chinese military. True, China’s military outmatches us, but in this scenario, has anyone considered and agreed on how this “war” will happen or be carried out?

What are the likely scenarios? A very likely catalyst would be a “hostile” armed incident that will occur at sea or on the air between a Filipino and Chinese vessel or aircraft. The corresponding response would determine if that incident further escalates. If the Chinese fired first and sank one of our ships, do we retaliate in kind? Do we even have the capability to sink or damage one of theirs? Do we declare war on China outright, or use the incident to rally international support against this neighbor to possibly include sanctions against it, and enhance efforts to contain its geopolitical ambitions against claimant countries in disputed maritime areas?

A hostile incident in the WPS, accidental or otherwise, doesn’t necessarily and automatically result in a state of war between the Philippines and China. Everything depends on how both parties respond to the provocation. Will China be willing to risk international fallout should it initiate a hostile act against another country? It probably will in its claim over Taiwan, but will China take that risk for its contested claims in the South China Sea, when such action against a weaker opponent could further harden the resolve of major players seeking to contain China’s rise?

Upholding our rights and sovereignty in the WPS is a complex and highly nuanced endeavor. There are many factors to consider, and that includes determining the amount of risk that we, as a sovereign nation and people, are willing to take in pursuit of that goal. Taking such calculated risks will surely lead to tension in the disputed maritime areas, but that’s better than doing nothing and handing over control of the WPS by default.

Moira G. Gallaga served three Philippine presidents as presidential protocol officer, and was posted as a diplomat at the Philippine consulate general in Los Angeles and the Philippine Embassy in Washington.