Ukraine: Another nuclear showdown?

Re-live the tense moments confronting diplomats in Moscow in 1989 after the fall of the Berlin Wall, as the Soviet Union began to implode. When a federal union collapses, it can divorce peacefully or engage in a patricidal conflict. One aspect of the collapse of the USSR (or Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) sets it apart from other breakups in the past: four of the component republics have nuclear weapons: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.

A hostile breakup will result in a nuclear civil war with devastating consequences for all mankind. That did not happen. After the collapse of the USSR, Mikhail Gorbachev, the last President of the USSR, admitted that the nuclear weapons in the four republics played a role in his decision to allow a peaceful breakup of the former socialist union.

The implosion of the USSR was the third instance of a potential nuclear showdown. The world knows about the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, the first instance of a confrontation between nuclear powers. Then there was a second nuclear crisis, the Davidoff Affair, caused by the China-Soviet border conflict in the Ussuri River. Boris Davidoff, a GRU (Soviet military intelligence) agent assigned in the Soviet Embassy in Washington DC, had asked for an audience with a CIA official to inquire about the US’ reaction should the USSR initiate a preemptive strike on China’s nuclear facilities.

This was a back channel message to the Chinese; as expected, the CIA passed on this message to Beijing. Not long afterward, China agreed to a peaceful settlement of its border dispute with the USSR, confirming that China was not prepared to engage in a total war over a territorial dispute. Which brings us to the case of China’s encroachment in the West Philippine Sea and how President Duterte has been taken for a ride by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Mr. Duterte has often cited China’s repeated threats that raising the South China Sea issue would mean war. This turns out to be a bluff, just as Mr. Duterte’s initiative to take on China one-on-one without allies is flawed.

The current dispute between NATO and Russia in Ukraine could be another potential conflict between nuclear powers. Note that in all the four nuclear confrontations, the Russians would have been involved. Ukraine must have regretted its decision to give up its nuclear weapons upon the breakup of the USSR. The equation would have been different if Russian President Vladimir Putin were facing a nuclear-armed Ukraine.

There are now nine nuclear-armed countries, namely: The US, Russia, China, France, and England (the Big Five), and Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea. As the world worries about the prospect of another nuclear confrontation in Ukraine, there is in place an informal protocol in maintaining peace:

No first use of nuclear weapons. The Big Five have set up hotlines to mitigate this possibility. However, the other four countries are not bound by this rule.

No export of nuclear weapons. No known violations so far.

No export of nuclear technology. Twice violated: Russia to China, and France to Israel. The recipients of the nuclear technology, China and Israel, were able to shorten the period within which to acquire nuclear weapons.

Control of the nuclear weapons must be at the highest level of government. Violated by Russian leader Nikita Khrushchev when he gave the commander of the Soviet forces in Cuba the option to use nuclear weapons should the US invade Cuba during the 1962 missile crisis. This led to his ouster as Communist Party secretary general for “adventurism.”

Control of nuclear weapons by an effective government. This refers to Gunnar Myrdal’s thesis of “weak states” which cannot effectively enforce their laws. It was violated once when a rogue Pakistani scientist sold nuclear technology to Iran.

The reader can use this informal protocol in evaluating the potential for a nuclear showdown in Ukraine. Note the peril each time a protocol is violated and the danger of nuclear proliferation. The new members of the Nuclear Club are not bound by the protocol and the ones most likely to use these weapons.

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Hermenegildo C. Cruz is a career ambassador and served in this capacity in the Soviet Union, Bolivia, Chile, and the UN. The only career ambassador to take up graduate studies in Sovietology, he served in the Soviet Union during the term of Gorbachev, who put in motion reforms that resulted in the implosion of the USSR.