Bongbong Marcos leads, maybe hard to beat

After the dust of substitution settled, official candidates for the Presidency are now, alphabetically, Manila mayor Isko Domagoso, Senator Bong Go, Sen. Ping Lacson, former Senator Bongbong Marcos, Senator Manny Pacquiao, and Vice President Leni Robredo. The much-awaited presidential run of survey leader Davao city mayor Sara Duterte ended as Vice Presidential aspirant under Lakas-NUCD.

President Duterte who earlier threatened to run against her daughter is now  a Senatorial candidate under Bong Go’s PDDS (PDP-LABAN) . This decision to run for lower position after a presidential term is not new because former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo also opted to run as Congresswoman (unopposed) in 2010 when she stepped down from Malacanang. Another former President Jose P. Laurel who served in the Japanese occupation, ran and got the biggest vote in the Senate in 1951.

But going back to the Presidential elections, recent SWS survey (OCTOBER 20-23)  showed Bongbong Marcos leading with an unreachable 47 percent over Leni Robredo-18, Domagoso-13, Pacquiao-9 Lacson-5.  Senator Bato de la Rosa who withdrew in favor of Bong Go, also had 5 percent.

Another survey done in the same period (October 11-18) by Publicus Asia with 1,500 respondents nationwide showed similarity, Bongbong Marcos-49.3 percent, Leni Robredo  21.3, Isko Domagoso-8.8, Ping Lacson 2.9, Manny Pacquiao 2.8, Bato de la Rosa 1.9 and the undecided was 8.6 percent. CEO Malou Tiquia told this author , they found the result unbelievable and made a triple check before publishing. As earlier said, SWS  confirmed their findings.

Senator Bong Go who moved as another Presidential candidate was leading the VP in the Publicus survey garnering 23.6 percent against Willie Ong-19.0 and Senator Tito Sotto-17.3 with undecideds at 16.9. Whether this score has the same weight in the presidential race remains to be seen.

Pulse Asia’s September 6-11 survey with Sara included at 20 percent also showed Bongbong Marcos second with 15 percent, Domagoso third at 13 percent, Pacquiao at 12, Robredo-8 and Lacson-6.

Today, many analysts are perplexed on why Bongbong Marcos remains popular, despite allegations of plunder by his dictator parents, martial law abuses and fake Oxford university claims. Another big thorn is the disqualification issue thrown at him by the opposition and seemingly enjoyed by the Duterte and Bong Go camp.

A lot of people told me, that after Bongbong lost the controversial VP elections in 2016, people who voted for him, I mean his” core base” are now very solid, and very angry because, they believe he was cheated.

Others insist Bongbong Marcos-Sara Duterte, is both formidable and unbeatable, combining the country’s biggest voting tribes. BiznewsAsia publisher Tony Lopez says these are, Ilocanos-27 percent of population, Cebuanos-25 percent and Waray-warays-4 percent or a total of 56 percent. Easily, they would get 1.3 of Metro Manila, 1/3 balance Luzon and 1/3 balance Visayas and 1/3 balance Mindanao.

Albay Congressman Joey Salceda says a Sara Duterte-Bongbong Marcos ticket  has  higher winnability than the reverse. He says President Duterte has a bigger core case than Bongbong Marcos. I agree, but with the substitution deadline over, this cannot happen.

Big questions remain, first, will President Duterte’s support for Senator Bong Go enough and carry him to the Presidency?  The numerous political coalitions are there only because of  “money”, I mean the pending  FLR (for later release) pork barrel projects long awaited by legislators and big political families . These need Palace approval and ergo they cannot displease Pres Duterte and his ward, Bong Go. But will these politicians remain loyal to Go till the end? History tells us politicians always jump at the last minute to join the winner.

Second question: is this disqualification complaint vs. Bongbong  part of a Palace plan to weaken his chances and make Bong Go win? On the other hand, is there a plan to support Bongbong Marcos and mayor Sara to win?  And once the disqualification case reaches the all-Duterte appointed Comelec and Supreme court, nullify Bongbong’s candidacy and Sara automatically succeeds?

Yes, the “substitution topic” has ended, but the teledrama continues to unfold.  Even Comelec  insists that  everything is legal, but the voting public are now endlessly confused and manipulated by these political maneuverings . Only in the Philippines.