Early in September the Asean Summit and East Asia Summit were held, with the issue of the South China Sea drawing particular attention. It was observed that China directed its diplomatic efforts toward ensuring that the summits’ joint statements did not refer to the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague—and it proved successful. It was even said that China had successfully deleted unfavorable diplomatic language referring to the arbitral court’s ruling on the territorial dispute.
But it would be an enormous mistake to judge that East Asian countries were acquiescing to China’s defiance of the arbitral court’s ruling.
That Asean nations are extremely suspicious and dissatisfied with regard to China’s behavior in the South China Sea is clear from the Asean Summit chair’s statement. From Paragraph 121 to Par. 128 there are statements on the South China Sea issue, including: “We remain seriously concerned over recent and ongoing developments and took note of the concerns expressed by some Leaders on the land reclamations and escalation of activities in the area, which have eroded trust and confidence, increased tensions and may undermine peace, security and stability in the region.”
Asean nations were demanding that China not engage in militarization and practice self-restraint (Par. 124). Asean itself sought complete implementation of the Declaration of Conduct (DOC) in the South China Sea, and made clear its resolve to move forward with substantial discussions regarding a Code of Conduct framework and timeline (Par. 126). The Asean nations do not have the slightest intention of accepting China’s actions that were changing the status quo.
Par. 5 of the DOC makes clear that: “The Parties undertake to exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability including, among others, refraining from action of inhabiting the presently uninhabited islands, reefs, shoals, cays, and other features and to handle their differences in a constructive manner.” But China’s premier made the following statement at the East Asia Summit: “According to the DOC, relevant disputes in the South China Sea shall be peacefully resolved by parties directly concerned through negotiation and consultation. All parties should follow this provision and honor their commitment made accordingly. Moves of unilaterally initiating arbitration and bringing in a third party constitute violations of the DOC. Nonobservance of the most forthright and clear norms of the region will do nothing but further complicate the issue.”
If China maintains this attitude, Asean nations may no longer be able to find meaning in agreement on a Code of Conduct with China.
Asean nations have become proactive in security cooperation with the United States. In October, the US-Asean Defense Ministers’ Meeting took place in Hawaii, featuring the Asean maritime dialogue led by the US Navy and Coast Guard. A new initiative was also announced: an invitation to Asean nations to join the United States’ information-sharing-aimed Maritime Domain Awareness Exercise.
China may think that, unless a diplomatic statement were issued to directly and expressly refute its actions in the South China Sea, other countries will be forced to accept the situation that it had created, and that it would be able to form a new maritime order that reflects its national interests. Real diplomacy regarding the South China Sea respects the arbitral court’s ruling on the dispute
between the Philippines and China, and is currently proceeding steadily and quietly to deepen cooperation and solidarity among countries seeking peaceful resolution based on international law.
As strong distrust and concern regarding China’s actions to change the status quo grows, relaxed cooperation between and among nations will be key to forming the foundation of a legitimate maritime order based on a shared understanding of international law.
China needs to quickly comprehend and face this fact.
Satoru Mori is a professor at Hosei University.