An auspicious start, almost

Having seen the Second Quarter 2016 Social Weather Survey, done on June 24-27 on a national sample of 1,200 adult respondents, I can say that its findings point to a very auspicious start for the incoming administration of President Duterte.

The people saw the May 2016 elections as a great success.  SWS will, in due time, issue a special report on the last elections, based on a large battery of survey items executed for the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES).

CSES, consisting of 57 institutes that do a common national survey during their major election year, is one of SWS’ cross-country networks. Each institute finances its own country survey.  SWS did CSES surveys in 1998, 2004 and 2010. The United States will soon have its own CSES survey, in line with its presidential election year.

Public trust in President Duterte is very high. SWS recently reported very high trust of Filipinos in their presidents-elect in June 2016 and June 2010 (see “Unity behind presidents-elect,” Opinion, 7/16/16).

Last June was too early to survey public satisfaction in presidential performance. The SWS survey found public expectations of the president very high; this will be reported soon.

The government’s moves in the West Philippine Sea are enormously popular. On this, see “SWS March 16-20, 2016 Survey: 78% support government’s filing of a case at UN for peaceful resolution of PH-China dispute; 87%  confident of Philippine win,” www.sws.org.ph, 7/12/16, and “Second Quarter 2016 Social Weather Survey: Net trust in China a ‘poor’ -24,” www.sws.org.ph, 7/18/16.

The people’s indicators of their economic wellbeing are at record highs. These are the SWS regular quarterly indicators of poverty, hunger, quality-of-life gainers, personal optimism, and economic optimism.  Being measured from the bottom up, they are more meaningful to the people than the official statistics of Gross National Product.  The self-rated thresholds for poverty are much more realistic than the top-down calculations by officials who do not monitor the full needs of the poor.

I wrote earlier about the economic news being good ever since the first quarter of 2015 (see “Favorable news about poverty,” Opinion, 5/27/16, and “It’s not the economy, stupid,” Opinion, 6/3/16).  The economic news in the June 2016 survey is even better than before; details will be in forthcoming SWS releases.

Public satisfaction with general governance reached new heights. SWS will soon issue a final report card of the Aquino administration (i.e., the executive branch of the government) as of June 2016.  It is far superior to the final report card of the Arroyo administration in June 2010.  The final average grades, for the full Aquino term up to 2016Q2, will exceed the preliminary averages in “P-Noy raised the bar,” Opinion, 6/25/16, which only went up to 2016Q1.

Public satisfaction with other high officials besides the president, and with the legislative and judicial branches of government, also reached high levels in the June 2016 survey.  The final averages for the full Aquino period will likewise exceed the preliminary averages up to 2016Q1 (“New standards of governance,” Opinion, 7/4/16).

In constructing the quarterly report cards of the Duterte administration, SWS will maintain Fighting inflation, Fighting graft and corruption, Helping the poor, Fighting hunger, Fighting crime, Promoting foreign relations, Promoting the welfare of overseas Filipino workers, and Reconciliation with Muslim and communist rebel groups as core subjects for the people to grade.

Candidate subjects for more frequent inclusion would be: Promoting human rights, Fighting addiction to banned drugs, Protecting Philippine territorial and maritime rights, Protecting the environment, and Being better prepared for natural disasters.

As the people’s conditions improve, so will their standards and expectations, and all the more will their unity and cooperation with governance matter.

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There was high public approval of the detention of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (GMA).  SWS has just issued the report, “First Quarter 2016 Social Weather Survey: 57% said government’s treatment of GMA was fair; 66% had little trust in her; 58% wanted her in a regular prison.” www.sws.org.ph, 7/21/16.

From December 2011 to April 2016, SWS did 10 surveys on whether the government’s treatment of former president GMA was fair, or too lenient, or too harsh.  All these surveys found a majority (from 55 to 69 percent) calling the treatment fair; those calling it too lenient or too harsh were equally divided.  In the April 2016 round, 57 percent said “fair,” 21 percent said “too lenient,” and another 21 percent said “too harsh.”

From September 2010 to April 2016, there were 19 SWS surveys about public trust in GMA. Her net trust ratings ranged from -32 (“bad”) to -63 (“very bad”); it was  -52 last April.  These look like continuations of GMA’s consistently negative performance as president in 2004-10.

In five SWS surveys from March 2012 to April 2016, those feeling that GMA should be transferred to a regular prison after being discharged from hospital, instead of being put under house arrest, were always the majority—initially 70 percent, but dropping to 58 percent last April.

The history of public opinion about GMA does not suggest that the recent Supreme Court action to release her was popular. SWS will examine this in its next regular survey.

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Contact mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.