Marcos Sr. was ‘brilliant but unscrupulous’

As the election fever heats up, I have been reading references to Philippine elections in the US Foreign Relations Series online. Declassified documents may be history now, but they make me wonder what reports regarding our 2016 elections would be like. In the past, historians followed a paper trail; today’s digital trail is more challenging because not everything is committed to paper. Talk, chat, text and e-mail from our phones leave no paper trail. If history based on written records has given us a prehistoric age, can we then be in the beginning of the posthistoric age?

On Nov. 26, 1965, US Ambassador William McCormick Blair Jr. sent a telegram from Manila to Washington containing his analysis of the 1965 elections. As the new vice president and senators had not yet been announced, Blair’s analysis was concerned mostly with Ferdinand Marcos, described in the opening paragraphs as an “unknown quantity in lonely eminence of Presidency,” with a detailed assessment that reads:

“Whereas both [Diosdado] Macapagal and Marcos prize power, former sometimes appeared inept in its use and unsure what he wished to do with it. Marcos appears to measure it carefully and to be very sure of uses to which he puts it. Up to now, basic objective of his harnessing power has of course been to gain the Presidency.

“What Marcos really believes in, what his goals are, and how he proposes to go about achieving them, are largely matters of conjecture. To some degree, he has been a guerrilla both in war and during the campaign, placing great emphasis on careful planning, systematic intelligence, secrecy, element of surprise and final massive surfacing of his forces at right time. In gaining [Nacionalista Party] nomination, and in winning Presidency, he displayed remarkable talents in these areas. Now that he has won Presidency, onus will be on him to demonstrate what his basic beliefs and ideas are.

“He comes to power accompanied by somewhat similar high hopes which accompanied Macapagal’s accession in 1961, except that electorate, having been disappointed once again, may now be still more cynical. At same time, pressure on Marcos to produce will be even greater because (1) basic problems of nation have become intensified and (2) he knows he will probably suffer Macapagal’s fate in 1969 unless he does get things moving. Good government may therefore be the best politics for him. (Marcos was reelected in 1969.—ARO)

“There are those who assert that era of corruption under [Carlos P.] Garcia will return in magnified form. A more balanced view would be that Marcos has very considerable potentialities, and that coming years will show whether these potentialities will be exerted for high or sinister purposes. Pres Macapagal recently observed, as earlier reported, that Marcos was brilliant but unscrupulous, but that great responsibility might sober him.

“The assertion, circulated by Macapagal’s propaganda machine and widely disseminated by visiting US newspapermen, that Marcos will be much in debt to ex-Pres Garcia, the Lopez interests, the ‘nationalists’ or any other group, appears questionable. He has of course some political debts to discharge, but because of way in which he figuratively seized Nacionalista nomination and then largely single-handedly won election, he will assume Presidency with fewer political drafts on future than probably any of his predecessors.

“There would appear to be at least some grounds for cautious optimism toward future. Marcos is realist with high awareness of pragmatic and empirical considerations. He weighs and sifts facts carefully, considers numerous angles and acts only after searching consideration and assessment. Once decisions are reached, however, he displays generalship of high order in implementing them.

“Furthermore, there is some evidence that Marcos is more keenly attuned to needs of country than his critics give him credit for. Woeful conditions throughout nation seem to have had considerable impact on him in his extensive travels in past year. His speeches reflected increasing bitterness, in a manner that seemed to be more than merely campaign oratory, at Macapagal administration’s largely ineffectual attempts to improve people’s welfare. If theory is correct that Marcos has high absorptive capacity and is greatly influenced by things he is exposed to, then his nationwide observations may serve valuable purpose.

“Marcos’ first preoccupation must inevitably be with domestic affairs in view of facts that government till may be almost empty, that the stability of peso must be defended, and that severe demands are imposed on administration by rapidly growing population. His qualities of decisiveness will promptly be put to test, with some hope that he will get down to deeds rather than words and govern rather than campaign as did Macapagal… Judging by his past performance, it would seem evident that he will be the boss in unmistakable fashion. His knowledge of the Legislative branch, based on service in both houses, and his ability to play role of conciliator and find common denominator, may serve him well. His ‘ruthlessness’ may prove useful in that elements tempted to free-wheel under another kind of leadership may be concerned that there will be retaliation if they get out of line…”

Presidents enter their terms carrying the hopes of a people that are impossible to fulfill, and exit with the people’s disappointment and vote for change.

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Comments are welcome at aocampo@ateneo.edu.