Surveys say nothing definite
With less than 30 days left before the elections, Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, “a province-bred Filipino” from Mindanao with roots in the Visayas, overtook Sen Grace Poe, who is from Luzon, in a nationwide SWS survey and thus emerged, for the first time as the frontrunner in the 2016 presidential race (“Duterte grabs lead from Poe,” Front Page, 4/12/16). The SWS survey conducted from March 30-April 2 showed Duterte with 27 percent; Poe, 23 percent; Binay, 20 percent; Roxas, 18 percent; Santiago, 3 percent.
Poe topped the field in the March 4-11 SWS survey. (She and Duterte tied at 24 percent in February.)
But the latest SWS nationwide survey proved that the results of a survey conducted in the National Capital Region by Pulse Asia last November, where Duterte “jumped ahead” with 34 percent, was no fluke at all. The results, even then, baffled and rattled many (“Why Duterte topped NCR poll,” Opinion, 12/02/15; “Duterte camp humbled by Pulse Asia survey lead,” News, 04/12/16).
Vice President Jejomar Binay earlier topped the SWS polls in January and February (barely two to three months ago) with what appeared to be insurmountable numbers—31 and 29, respectively. In the latest survey, the Vice President’s “command votes” may have been “breached,” but like stock market prices, these could bounce back. Don’t count out Binay the survivor, not just yet—until the votes are counted.
Mar Roxas? A gentleman, unwaveringly loyal to his commander in chief despite the Mamapasano massacre. But he, whose do-or-die followers’ numbers remain stable at around 20 percent, could mount a come-from-behind victory with the Liberal Party’s well-oiled machinery. Which Binay also has in the United Nationalist Alliance.
Duterte must now be sharpening his debating skills for the final PiliPinas encounter, which will be held on April 24 in the vote-rich north, to counter allegations from Binay and Roxas about his being un-Christian, an NPA supporter, a lawbreaker, and a “womanizer”—like a former president who is now locked in three-way battle for a mayoralty post in a metro city!
Duterte and Sen. Grace Poe appear to have more people rooting for them.
Regardless of the final election tally, we should be thankful to Pope Francis —a genuinely forgiving spiritual leader of millions of people of various colors and political beliefs—for his unending prayers!
—MANUEL Q. BONDAD, Makati City
