A FEW weeks from election day, opinion survey results showed Rodrigo Duterte and Grace Poe contesting first place, while Mar Roxas and Jejomar Binay are locked in a struggle for third. The first-placer could ignite a bandwagon momentum and run away with the most votes. But the third-placer could still mobilize and deploy his grassroots organization for a strong last lap spurt to nose out the first-placer. Being second or fourth would render one a loser.
Both frontrunners are essentially newcomers to national politics, challenging incumbent and well-entrenched representatives of the old order. And if these surveys are true, the “newbies” are pacing the “oldbies,” signaling a view that change is what the majority of the voters are looking for. And recent developments like the Bangladesh-RCBC fiasco, the Naia brownout and the Kidapawan shootout bolster the necessity for a major leadership revamp.
But oldbies possess substantial advantages that could frustrate voters’ wishes. Substantial war chests, precinct-level manpower and electronic counting access directed by experienced political handlers can easily overcome the slim leads of the newbies. To ensure a win, either of the newbies should get a majority vote. Otherwise, the Liberal Party or United Nationalist Alliance can still steal victory.
Acrimony is escalating between the Roxas and Duterte forces. There are also pointed exchanges between Binay and Duterte. These seem to imply that UNA and LP strategists see Duterte as the frontrunner they must eliminate for their group to get the presidency. It seems that the UNA and LP tacticians feel that Poe will sputter in the end given the questions surrounding her citizenship.
Let’s see how the final 30 days of the campaign will sort all this out. For this writer, it’s the heat generated by the iron-fist positions of Duterte now being attacked by LP and UNA that may derail this election. If any of these three camps becomes too forceful or violent, that could trigger a No-El given the Commission on Elections’ inadequacies or even another Edsa-type event that an angry citizenry will see fit to join.
—JOSE OSIAS,
jzosias@gmail.com