1. Drivers of traffic demand
Three factors drive the volume of daily trips in a city. They are outside the ambit of traffic and transport authorities. These are population, motor vehicles and economic activities in a compact area. The population density of Metro Manila is 35 percent higher than Tokyo’s. Although the economic size of Metro Manila is about one-third that of Singapore, its vehicle density is 56 percent higher than the latter’s.
About 18 million trips per weekday occur in Metro Manila. That is a trip rate of 1.4 trips per capita per day compared with Ho Chi Minh’s (3.2) and Singapore’s (2.4).
2. Daily trips by mode and purpose
Buses and jeepneys account for 38 percent of the daily trips, with rail only at 6 percent. Heretofore insignificant, trips on motorcycles and tricycles have zoomed to 35 percent.
As to be expected, the dominant trips by purpose are to work (17 percent) and to school (15 percent). To home is 49 percent simply because people have to go home at the end of the day. Car travel accounts for 30 percent of person-km trips, but occupies 72 percent of road space.
Source: MUCEP project of JICA AND DOTC
3. Supply of road infrastructure
Obviously, roads are lacking to accommodate the growing number of motor vehicles. With few exceptions, many have reached saturation points (i.e., volume > 80% of capacity).
Result: P2.4 billion a day of unnecessary cost. Implication: Search for alternate route is an exercise in futility.
Can we build more roads?
Yes, but that will entail a huge displacement of people and properties, aside from lengthy litigations.
The supply of road is not miniscule— estimated at 16,500 lane-km. If rearranged into a straight line, these would form two (four-lane, each) expressways from Aparri to Jolo.
The only practical option is to build more elevated roads, which a noisy minority always opposes for various reasons.
Even if we manage to build them, these roads will be filled up as soon as they are completed.
4. Prospects in next five years
Happy days ahead for the automotive sector. But for all commuters expect longer travel time:
3 hours instead of 2, when 30 minutes should be the norm.
In terms of infrastructure supply, the best that could be expected by the end of 2020 are the following improvements (which will be touted by the government as remedies to our traffic nightmare):
About 200 lane-km of elevated roads (compared with 5,500 km needed just to remain at current congestion levels)
40 km of mass transit lines (combined with capacity expansion to two times the current levels)
More effective and sustained traffic enforcement to prevent frequent gridlocks.
This prognosis takes into account project maturity and assumes the completion of Naia Phase 2 Expressways, Skyway 3, Link Expressway, Segment 10 of NLEx, C-5 Link, LRT 2 extensions, LRT 1 extensions to the east and west, and PNR South commuter from Tutuban to Calamba, Laguna. It is also premised on competent and action-oriented administration.