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Why Duterte topped NCR poll

12:03 AM December 02, 2015

Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, a “probinsyano” (a province-bred Filipino) from Davao City, “jumped ahead” with a 34-percent voting preference in the National Capital Region (NCR). This baffled and possibly rattled all of his four major Metro Manila-based presidential rivals. Based on a commissioned survey conducted by Pulse Asia last Nov 11-12, Sen. Grace Poe trailed Duterte with 26 percent; Vice President Jejomar Binay, 22; former interior secretary Manuel Roxas, 11; and Sen. Miriam Santiago, 7.

The 8-percentage-point difference between Duterte and Poe is short of the 13 margin of error deemed “statistically significant” as defined by Pulse Asia, and may not be conclusive of the whole nation’s voting preference as of today. But of NCR’s population of 12 million and growing, why do 38 percent in the ABC class, 34 and 31 of the D and E classes, respectively, want Duterte to be their president—despite his alleged “human rights” record for decades?

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In the ABC class, Duterte’s 19-point lead over Poe, or double Poe’s benchmark, was a surprise and statistically significant against Duterte’s gains of 6 and 4 percent in D and E classes, respectively.

The stats show, for purposes of discussion, that a Poe disqualification will most likely benefit Duterte in the NCR. With Binay’s 32 and Duterte’s 31 in the E class, it could be a tight race for the E class between Makati’s Binay, and Davao’s Duterte in Metro Manila.

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Take note, Davao City’s population at 1.449 million (2010 census, excluding Davao del Sur’s 868,000) is thrice Makati’s 529,000 and just 150,000 short of the city of Manila’s 1.6 million.

To digress, why should the Liberal Party, according to some commentaries, want Poe disqualified when Roxas’ numbers show that Poe’s votes may not likely shift to the LP candidate?

Obviously groping for appropriate words, a Poe supporter, Valenzuela City Mayor Rex Gatchalian, could only mumble: “The method, sample, etc. are factors that must be considered.” Recovering a day after, he said, “It [the Pulse Asia survey] only covered the NCR.”

From Liberal Party’s Rep. Miro Quimbo, a terse comment: “Roxas’ rating had increased by seven points. “From the Binay camp, spokesperson Joey Salgado brushed off Pulse Asia’s findings: “. . . the survey has a margin of error. . . small sampling size.”

Santiago came out and stressed that she would not give way to Duterte.

Why do politicians doubt poll surveys when favorable to foes and turn ecstatic when these show them leading! The Pulse Asia survey shows Duterte is a force to reckon with!

Duterte’s rivals welcomed his candidacy. But that was a day before the Pulse Asia survey findings were announced!

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After Pulse Asia’s NCR survey, a Duterte-Cayetano team-up appears to have been finally sealed. (This is a wake-up call for the presidentiables.) Do NCR residents now have a “perfect pairing”—perceived crime- and corruption-busters with track records? Should we have a bonafide probinsyano from Mindanao for a change?

Are we exasperated with the politicians’ “blame games”?

“Just do it” appears to be NCR’s battle cry!

—MANUEL Q. BONDAD, Barangay Palanan, Makati City

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TAGS: Elections 2016, pulse asia, Rodrigo Duterte, surveys
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