Foreign policy and national security are poised to figure as major issues in the Philippine presidential election. Recent polls show Filipinos are worried about China and its aggressive stance in the South China Sea. They also fear that economic dependence on China could be leveraged to force concessions on Philippine sovereignty.
These are not unreasonable views, given that Chinese vessels now occupy Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal, just 259 kilometers from Luzon and that China’s nine-dash line nearly intersects with Palawan.
Other polls suggest a very close race among three leading candidates seeking to succeed President Aquino. The winning candidate will need to convince voters that she or he is committed to defending Philippine sovereignty.
That context is important for both Mr. Aquino and US President Barack Obama, who are slated to meet this month on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders’ Meeting in Manila.
For Mr. Aquino, the remaining months of his administration offer a legacy opportunity to institutionalize defense and national security mechanisms to protect the sovereignty of the Philippines. In doing so, he is politically aligned with the majority of Filipinos, who have welcomed his outspoken stand against Chinese diplomatic pressure and aggression in the South China Sea.
His administration’s decisions to seek clarity on China’s claims in the South China Sea at the United Nations’ Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague and to hammer out the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (Edca) with the United States are pillars of this effort.
Edca, which Manila and Washington signed in April 2014 and whose constitutionality is currently being questioned in the Philippine Supreme Court, would allow the stationing of US troops, planes and ships on Philippine bases on a rotating basis and involve significant US capacity-building efforts for the Philippine armed forces.
Presidential visits have historically been action-forcing events. For Obama, this will be his last trip to the Philippines as President and likely the last by a US President for several years.
The United States will hold a presidential election in November 2016 and a new President will take office in early 2017. Therefore, Obama’s visit to Manila could be a recommitment of his pivot to the Asia-Pacific, underlining tangible support for the US-Philippine alliance through serious investment in helping modernize the defense capabilities of the Philippine armed forces.
With the visit less than a month away, the opportunity for the United States and the Philippines to roll out the Edca and activate the US funding vehicle—the Southeast Asia Maritime Security Initiative, which will allocate $425 million for the US military to support the Philippines and other regional partners—may have passed.
However, the two leaders still have the chance to institutionalize bilateral defense cooperation if the Aquino administration can see Edca moved out of the Supreme Court before the visit.
Many Filipinos wonder whether the United States would support them under the framework of the US-Philippines alliance if another country attacked the Philippines.
The answer to that question was clearly given in the significant efforts by both governments to negotiate Edca. That agreement also provides for careful respect of Philippine sovereignty and laws, as the US military has no interest in reestablishing bases in the Philippines.
If the Supreme Court can decide on Edca before mid-November, history can be made in Manila. Some argue that the court is attentive to political trends in the Philippines. If that is true, a reading of popular sentiment in the polls would give it every encouragement to move forward.
The Supreme Court justices may also be awaiting a lower court’s verdict on the controversial case of US serviceman Joseph Scott Pemberton. If the case is resolved soon and in a way that most Filipinos see that justice is served, it will help pave the way for the Supreme Court to act.
(Ernest Bower is senior adviser and Sumitro chair for Southeast Asia Studies, and Conor Cronin is a research associate, both at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Bower is also a trustee of the Albert del Rosario Institute.)