Last Monday, the new SWS numbers on hunger were first published in BusinessWorld, under the headline “Hunger worsens in third quarter.” They were sourced from the original SWS report, called “Third Quarter 2015 Social Weather Survey: Hunger is 15.7% of families; Moderate Hunger rises, but Severe Hunger falls,” posted in our website later the same day.
The SWS title emphasized the opposite movements of the components Severe Hunger (meaning, experienced often or always, in the last three months) and Moderate Hunger (experienced only once or a few times), rather than the rise in the total of Severe and Moderate Hunger which was the basis for the misleading BW headline.
In fact, the new rate of Severe Hunger, which is 1.6 percent of families in September 2015, is very good news. It is the fifth consecutive quarterly decline in Severe Hunger. The last time Severe Hunger was so low was fully 12 years ago, in September 2003.
The new rate of Moderate Hunger, which is 14.1 percent of families in September 2015, is indeed above the 10.8 percent in June and the 11.1 percent in March. But what matters more is that it is below the average quarterly Moderate Hunger from 2007 to 2014, covering the previous eight years.
Thus, the recent movement in Moderate Hunger is merely one step back, after two steps forward. It is not enough to contradict my column, “Hunger: the recovery continues” (Opinion, 7/25/15). The average Severe plus Moderate Hunger rate in 2015, over three quarters so far, is 14.0 percent. It is below the 18.3 percent in 2014, 19.5 percent in 2013, 19.9 percent in both 2012 and 2011, 19.1 in 2010, and all earlier numbers as far back as 2005, covering 10 years.
A big picture is always better. In appraising survey statistics, one can never go wrong by examining the big picture, using all the available details over time and space. A small picture of only a few points is not enough to show a trend.
Every newly posted SWS hunger report has updated tables and charts showing the quarterly figures since the series began 17 years ago, and the four geographical areas that the surveys were designed to cover.
Of course, a newspaper does not have space to print so much. Therefore, serious analysts should not rely on a newspaper item alone, and especially not on a headline. They should take the item as a signal that a new report, with relevant details, is available for study.
Severe Hunger in the National Capital Region (NCR) bears watching, however. In September 2015, the Severe Hunger rate of 1.6 percent in the nation is due to rates of 4.3 percent in NCR, much higher than the 1.3 percent in the Balance of Luzon, 0.3 percent in the Visayas, and 1.3 percent in Mindanao.
For the first three quarters of 2015, the running average percentage of severely hungry families is 3.8 in NCR, versus only 1.8 in Balance of Luzon, 1.8 in Visayas, and 1.2 in Mindanao. In 2014, the average quarterly percent in Severe Hunger was 3.8 in NCR, 4.1 in the Balance of Luzon, 3.2 in the Visayas, and 2.5 in Mindanao—i.e., NCR had the second-worst rate of Severe Hunger last year.
Two earlier SWS economic reports for the Third Quarter were also favorable. The habit of using big pictures means relying not just on one indicator, but on as many as possible. Aside from hunger, the Social Weather Surveys have other periodic indicators of economic wellbeing, such as personal optimism and poverty. In every survey these indicators are consistent with each other, since they emanate from the same sample of respondents.
The new SWS hunger figures are from the same September 2015 survey that found: “Net Personal Optimism at Very High +33; Net Optimism about the Economy at Very High +18; Net Gainers at High +4” (posted on 10/19/15, with net personal optimism as “+36” in the title, which was only a typo error not repeated in the body or tables of the report; published by BW on 10/15/15).
In the country as a whole, 38 percent felt that their personal quality of life would improve in the next 12 months, while only 5 percent felt it would worsen, hence the net personal optimism of +33. Personal optimism has been Very High (i.e., at least +30) for six consecutive quarters.
A special tabulation shows that, in September 2015, net personal optimism was +34 among adults from non-hungry families, +28 among the moderately hungry, and +39 among the severely hungry. There is no sign that hunger dampened personal optimism.
The September 2015 SWS survey also found: “Families rating themselves as Mahirap or Poor at 50%; Families rating their Food as Poor at 35%” (first reported in BW on 10/29/15; posted by SWS on 11/2/15). Compared to June 2015,
Self-rated Poverty (SRP) was down by one point, and Self-rated Food Poverty (SRFP) was down by two points. Compared to the average of 2014, SRP was down by four points, and SRFP was down by six points.
Another tabulation shows that, in September 2015, net personal optimism was +47 among adults from non-poor families, versus +30 among those from poor families, using the self-ratings to identify the poor. It was +45 among the non-food-poor, versus +26 among the food-poor, also using the self-ratings. SWS classifies net personal optimism from +20 to +29 as High. These figures show that poverty only reduces personal optimism a bit; it does not destroy it.
In conclusion, the current big pictures of both hunger and poverty are encouraging.
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The previously unpublished tabulations cited here were done by Ms. Josefina Mar of SWS.
Contact mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.