The political shape of things to come

THE 2016 elections may be 10 months away but the emerging lines of that contest are already discernible. The main focus is naturally on the presidency as the transition to a new political administration is the highlight of our democratic system where, flawed as it may be, political power is gained not by the bullet but by the ballot. So, generally speaking we may be seeing a relatively peaceful election and, perhaps, the first truly “modern” election of the post-martial law era when the “angst” of the Marcos regime and hopes of People Power no longer dominate the national psyche. A new generation of voters, with fewer encumbrances from the past and with bright eyes cast into the future, has grown. It is these voters, in their twenties and early thirties, who are changing the political equation; and their number is growing.

This brings us to the declared and would-be presidential candidates now being mooted in media and social gatherings. At the top of the list, the first to publicly proclaim his candidacy, is Vice President Jejomar Binay, former mayor of Makati City, the country’s business center. Lost in the controversy over his financial dealings and unexplained wealth allegedly amassed during his more than 20-year mayorship are Binay’s political acumen and savvy in wielding power in the face of unrelenting attempts to pull him down. Binay’s come-from-behind victory in the vice presidential race in 2010 is characteristic of the political virtuoso who knows how to push the buttons where and when necessary.

This may also be his mindset for 2016—a mindset that has engendered a strategy bolstered by the fact that it works for him—in Makati for 20 years and in winning the vice presidency. It is the politics of “abrazo” where you get up close and personal, as in hugging babies in streets, old folks in marketplaces, ward leaders in the hustings. It is pretty traditional and as old as Julius Caesar campaigning for a consul seat in the streets of Rome, but it works. It is these interpersonal

linkages as seen in Makati’s sister city tie-ups with more than 600 local government units and their concomitant pack of mayors, vice mayors and councilors throughout the country. Binay is banking on this model to work, the plethora of pending court cases and Senate probes against him notwithstanding.

Another likely candidate is Interior Secretary Mar Roxas who has an enormous historical burden to bear. His father, the late senator Gerry Roxas, led the Liberal Party (LP) as the main opposition during the Marcos martial law regime and suffered for it. Now that the LP leads the present administration’s coalition, has the time come for the son to rise? But aside from his low opinion survey ratings there is also the shadow of having been edged out by Binay for the vice presidency in 2010. But Roxas can take consolation that 2010 belongs to another era and the ground has shifted beneath our feet.

Things have indeed changed: the LP now has the upper hand, which brings hope to a Roxas candidacy. Yet here also lies a paradox: With administration resources behind him, Roxas has the advantage as far as traditional politics go, particularly in handing out government largesse anywhere in the country. Which he has been doing as a member of the Cabinet for more than four years now. Yet, his poll standing is below that of Binay. This, even as a newcomer seems to have caught the public imagination, even though she does not have the kind of resources Roxas has in his hands. A rethink of the LP’s campaign strategy may be in order. Still, as the candidate of the party in power, Roxas remains a force to reckon with, and the “deep pockets” of his party may yet spell the difference in a long and arduous campaign.

The joker in the deck is the newcomer, Sen. Grace Poe. Her being a presidential candidate has been the subject of speculation ever since she topped the senatorial elections of 2013. Now with her leading the opinion polls in 2015, the level of anticipation of her becoming the next president has reached fever pitch and her every utterance is minutely analyzed as to her intentions. Some say she owes her political pull in part to her being the daughter of the the popular Fernando Poe Jr. whose foray into politics in 2004 caused him and his family grief. But since then she has earned her own political spurs for which the public seems to have taken a liking to her, as shown in her public opinion rise.

The consequences of her father’s failed presidential bid may be in the back of her mind; yet there could also be in this unquenched dream a daughter’s determination to do well by the father. Her running in 2016 would invariably change the campaign thrust of both Binay and Roxas. Poe would be seen as the principal opponent of both, so expect the heavy guns to be trained on her once the election campaign kicks into full swing.

The assaults could be downright nasty with no quarters spared. The presidential election, as it is shaping up, would not be just the typical circus that it had been in the past; for the electorate in particular, it could be a tough choice between sticking to traditional politics and setting an altogether new direction for the nation. The 2016 elections could be the midwife of a new country aborning.

Dr. Rene Guioguio is a journalism professor at the UP College of Mass Communication, Diliman, and a graduate of the University of Washington in Seattle, where he completed his PhD in international communication.