‘Power of Aquino endorsement’

On Wednesday the Aquino administration pushed the momentum of its endorsement of Interior Secretary Mar Roxas as candidate for president in the 2016 elections with a “show of force” to make him win despite survey results showing him lagging behind his prospective rivals.

Within days following Roxas’ proclamation as standard-bearer of the ruling Liberal Party at the historic Club Filipino, local government leaders demonstrated their support for him at a lunch meeting in a popular restaurant in Greenhills, San Juan City. President Aquino showed up, surprising Roxas and the party members.

Mr. Aquino’s unexpected attendance at the gathering organized by Ulap, or the Union of Local Authorities of the Philippines, clearly boosted the morale of the party leaders as well as the rank and file from the grassroots in the provinces. The meeting did not clarify the issue of who will stand as Roxas’ running mate in 2016. The issue remains up in the air although the Liberal Party is engaged in the courtship of Sen. Grace Poe, who is leading in surveys on the preferred successor to Mr. Aquino.

The neophyte senator has yet to make up her mind on whether to accept overtures from the President and Roxas to come on board the administration’s team and play second fiddle to the latter. She remains undecided on whether to run as an independent in a mythical “third force” ticket. And she seems mesmerized by the notion that she can win a presidential election on survey results alone, without a political party, and without offering a platform of governance apart from her claim that she shares the administration’s principles as embodied in its so-called Straight Path doctrine, the “daang matuwid.”

While she and Roxas are exchanging text messages these days, Poe is under pressure by the reality that the longer she hems and haws and plays hard to get, the more her options diminish to dictate the terms of her adoption. Hard-nosed political strategists know that survey results are extremely volatile, and Poe will soon find out that she may be left holding an empty bag. Public opinion, after all, can very well be overtaken by swift changes in the public mood.

For example, after Mr. Aquino’s endorsement of Roxas, perceptions on his “winnability” started to change. It is extremely foolish to assume that Roxas’ low popularity vis-à-vis the other presidential aspirants will remain static and that Poe will continue to gallop ahead as front-runner. The endorsement of Roxas has changed the dynamic of winning or losing the presidential election.

It is now clear that while Liberal Party leaders, including the President, are pining for a Roxas-Poe “dream ticket,” the LP is not short of vice-presidential material. In fact, they are seriously considering a short list of desirable replacements for Poe, to include Camarines Sur Rep. Leni Robredo, widow of then Interior Secretary Jesse Robredo.

The show of force for Roxas was a demonstration of the crucial role of political parties in elections, especially a presidential election. It signaled the revival of the two-party system that prevailed in the postwar period after independence until the installation of the multiparty system after 1986 People Power Revolution—an enduring but destabilizing legacy of President Cory Aquino’s constitutional reforms.

The Liberal Party is as much a legacy of the Roxas political family to the development of the Philippine democratic system as it is the vehicle for Roxas’ bid to become President Aquino’s successor. Founded by Roxas’ grandfather, Manuel A. Roxas, the first president of the Republic, the LP was a splinter of Commonwealth President Manuel L. Quezon’s Nacionalista Party. It is now the only party with a viable nationwide organization and an extensive network of branches that can deliver votes in national elections and that can claim a platform of policies and programs.

It is also the centerpiece of the administration’s coalition with minor parties in Congress.

In his farewell address in Congress, the President said the May 2016 elections would be a “referendum” on his administration. He asked the people: Will you squander in one election the gains the country has made under his “daang matuwid” governance?

The show of force was organized by various local government leaders to show their approval of Mr. Aquino’s endorsement of Roxas. According to LP leaders, the outpouring of support for Roxas from various parties and groups “showed the power of the presidential endorsement.” They claimed that the endorsement would “continue to have a bandwagon effect” that would affect the “winnability ratings” of Roxas.

But that remains to be seen in the results of the forthcoming surveys. Abangan.