The administration bounces up

In the Social Weather Survey for the second quarter, done nationwide last June 5-8, the net satisfaction rating of the national administration (or “admin” for short) is +31, or back in the Good range. This new +31 is the difference between 55 percent satisfied and 24 percent dissatisfied with the admin’s performance.

It is a 12-point bounce from the net rating of +19 in March 20-25, when there were 48 percent satisfied and 29 percent dissatisfied. That was the lowest point of President Noynoy Aquino’s admin, and only the second time for the rating to be in the Moderate range (from +10 to +29). All other ratings in P-Noy’s time since mid-2010 have been Good (+30 to +49), if not Very Good (+50 to +69).

The record low +19 of P-Noy in March 2015 is very much higher than the record lows of previous admins, namely: the -10 of Corazon Aquino in November 1990, the -18 of Fidel Ramos in October 1995, the -8 of Joseph Estrada in December 1999, and the -45 of Gloria Arroyo in March 2010. SWS uses Neutral for +9 to -9 (which is statistically the same as zero), Poor for -10 to -29, and Bad for -30 to -49.

The current +31 of the P-Noy admin, a year before it ends, is above both the -1 under Corazon Aquino in July 1991 and the -11 under Arroyo in June 2009. It equals the +31 under Ramos in June 1997. It is above all the ratings under Estrada in 2000, who was unexpectedly ousted in January 2001.

The rating differs across areas. Those incredulous at the recovery of the P-Noy admin are most likely from the National Capital Region (NCR), where the admin’s new net rating is a Moderate +18 in June, down by 3 points from March. The people in NCR are often the hardest to please.

Elsewhere, however, the admin’s rating rose. In the Balance of Luzon, it became a Moderate +29 in June, up by a huge 21 points from a merely Neutral +8 in March. In the Visayas, it rose by 9 points from +34 to +43, both Good. In Mindanao, it went to a Good +34, up by 8 points from a Moderate +26.   Opinion polls can help teach Metro Manilans that they do not represent the entire country.

Admin ratings are separate from personal ratings. The 55 percent currently satisfied with the admin comes from 41 points who are also satisfied with the personal performance of P-Noy, 8 points who are dissatisfied with him, and 6 points who are neutral.

The 24 percent dissatisfied with the admin consists of 13 points who are also dissatisfied with P-Noy’s personal performance, 9 points who are satisfied with him, and 2 points who are neutral.

The balance of 20 points who feel neutral about the admin consist of 7 points satisfied with P-Noy, 6 points neutral about him, and 6 points dissatisfied with him. They add up correctly to 20 after rounding.

Ratings of the admin and of the president are correlated. The two ratings normally move together across time. They both bounced back in June, compared to March.   But the closeness of the +31 admin rating to the +30 P-Noy rating in the June 2015 SWS survey is coincidental.

Some people are satisfied with the admin but not with P-Noy himself, whereas others are dissatisfied with his admin but satisfied with him, yet there is a very strong correlation between the two.

Among those satisfied with P-Noy, the net satisfaction with his admin in June is a Very Good +56. On the other hand, among those dissatisfied with P-Noy, the net rating of his admin is a Poor -18. Those feeling neutral about P-Noy himself give his admin a Moderate grade of +25.

The SWS report card contains grades in specific subjects also. The general rating of the admin comes from asking survey respondents for their satisfaction in general (sa pangkalahatan). After getting the general evaluation, the survey asks for satisfaction with admin performance in specific “subjects.” The grades in the June 2015 report card of 20 subjects are:

Good: Improving the quality of children’s education (+47), Providing enough supply of electricity (+44), Helping the poor (+39), Foreign relations (+38), Promoting the welfare of overseas Filipino workers (+32), and Ensuring that medicines are affordable (+31).

Moderate: Defending the country’s territorial rights (+27), Restoring peace to Mindanao (+23), Giving justice (+19), Fighting terrorism (+13), and Deciding quickly on important problems (+11).

Neutral: Rehabilitating areas damaged by conflict in Mindanao (+5), Fighting crimes (+5), Reconciliation with Communist rebels (+4), Eradicating graft and corruption (+1), and Reconciliation with Muslim rebels (+1).

Poor: Fighting inflation (-11), Ensuring that no family will be hungry (-12), and Ensuring that oil firms don’t take advantage of oil prices (-17).

Very Bad: Resolving the Maguindanao massacre case with justice (-50).

Any relation to the rating of Vice President Jejomar Binay? Experience shows that the grade of every subject is related to the rating of the President. In particular, the grade of +32 in the subject of Promoting the welfare of OFWs is due to grades of +42 from those satisfied with P-Noy, +22 from those Neutral about him, and +14 from those dissatisfied with him.

Alternatively, the OFW grade of +32 is also due to grades of +39 from those satisfied with Vice President Binay, +19 from those Neutral about him, and +19 from those dissatisfied with him. The relation to the VP, who had the Cabinet portfolio for OFWs at the time of the survey, does not overshadow the relation to P-Noy.

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Special tabulations for this piece were done by Ms Josefina Mar of SWS. Contact mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.