As important as who the next prez will be

It seems the focus of the news this week is on the Binay resignation and its aftermath. The brickbats he has received and the comments on his credibility are, I think, well-deserved. Maybe he should change his PR team because lately, every time he opens his mouth what he says explodes in his face (Grace Poe and the President are the two most recent examples). On the other hand, he has also received criticisms because he has NOT opened his mouth, as when he refuses to answer the corruption charges against him, or when he refuses to elaborate on the charges he has brought against P-Noy.

But I will not write about Binay this week. I will write instead on a matter that is at least as important to the Philippines as who the next president will be: the West Philippine Sea (WPS). The Reader, however, may find certain similarities in the two issues.

Aileen Baviera and Jay Batongbacal of the University of the Philippines are the authors of an excellent primer on the WPS (Asian Center and Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea), which can be accessed through the Internet. But, of course, Supreme Court Associate Justice Antonio Carpio has spent much of his time, talent, and perhaps treasure, and lent his stature as a respected legal scholar, for at least the last couple of years, through speeches, lectures and papers (he recently delivered a lecture at the University of Wollongong in Australia, and brought his maps, too) in a campaign to raise the awareness of the public on the legal issues surrounding the Philippines’ and China’s claims on the area.

For the Reader who has not the time to spend on a 73-page (including annexes) primer or a 62-page lecture (including maps), let me give a one-page version:

The WPS is the part of the South China Sea that is closest to the Philippines, obviously on its western side. It includes the Luzon Sea, as well as the waters around, within and adjacent to the Kalayaan Island Group (KIG), and Bajo de Masinloc, also known as Scarborough Shoal. (Picture the area right next to Palawan, all the way up to Zambales.)

Why is it so important, that we are willing to stand toe to toe against China over it (legally speaking, of course; we still are not militarily prepared)? Simple. Economics.

First, food security. Close to home, for Metro Manilans: Do you know that 65-75 percent of our total fish consumption comes from the Palawan area? And where does Palawan get the fish? You guessed it: the WPS. An estimated five million tons or around 20 percent of the Philippines’ annual fish catch is the probable annual yield of these waters. Wasn’t it just recently that Chinese and Taiwanese ships were defying our Coast Guard, and shooing off our fishermen from these grounds?

Second, oil and gas. Malampaya is in the WPS, and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Estimates of oil reserves go as high as 213 billion barrels (this may be for the whole South China Sea), which at $50 a barrel, amounts to almost $11 trillion (our 2014 gross domestic product at current prices was about P12.5 trillion). The gas reserves come up to about nine trillion cubic feet (a “best estimate”). An expert (Balce) has estimated that the total fuel demand of the Philippines for the next 20 years can be covered by the combined oil and gas reserves of the WPS. I don’t know what his assumptions are.

Third, others. The KIG is known to be rich in phosphates and guano deposits, and the seabed is a source of manganese nodules that yield magnesium, cobalt, nickel and molybdenum. Also in the list are shallow shelf placers of gold, tin, titaniferous magnetite, zircon, monazite, phosphate, quartz sand, chromite sands, etc., as well as polymetallic massive sulphide deposits, and rare-earth-bearing monazite placers. No values have been given.

There are issues other than economic ones. But we will not discuss them now.

Does China have any legal claim to the WPS? That’s where Justice Carpio comes in. One word: No (I wrote a column about this last year). He refers to China’s use of “historical facts” to bolster its case, and tears them down, using China’s own historical maps, its constitutions and its own official pronouncements. Of course, Carpio doesn’t use the word “lies,” but he does point out that these maps, constitutions and pronouncements are “glaringly inconsistent” with China’s current position. In other words, China’s claim is baseless.

With Carpio very much involved in the case against China that the Philippines has brought up in the United Nations, he yesterday was quoted as saying that if the arbitral tribunal in The Hague, the Netherlands, decides that it can rule on the case—that it has jurisdiction (which the Philippines needs to prove to it)—that will mean that we have practically won. He also thinks that the tribunal will have a hard time saying it does not have jurisdiction, because that will mean that the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea is meaningless. The kicker, though, is that China refuses to recognize the authority of the tribunal.

So what role can we Filipinos play to make sure that we get China out? Says Carpio: that it is everyone’s duty to convince the world that what China is doing is wrong. Other than that, we also have to make sure that our military has the equipment and personnel to enable it to exercise an effective deterrent effect on China’s intentions.