All-time high personal optimism

Last Tuesday (5/26/2015), SWS reported that 42 percent of Filipino adults, as surveyed nationwide in March 2015, expect their personal quality of life (QOL) to improve in the next 12 months, and only 5 percent expect it to worsen. (The balance from 100 percent expect their QOL to remain the same.) The implied net personal optimism rate of +37 is the highest in survey history since 1984.

Based on experience, SWS considers Very High any net optimism rates of +30 and up. It uses the terms High for +20 to +29, Fair for +10 to +19, Mediocre for +1 to +9, Low for -9 to 0, and Very Low for -10 and below.

Personal optimism has been Very High 11 times and High eight times—not less than +24—in the 19 SWS surveys during the Noynoy Aquino administration thus far, from the third quarter of 2010 to the present. Five years of steadily high optimism is totally unprecedented.

Personal optimism under earlier regimes. The SWS data bank has two surveys from the end of Ferdinand Marcos’ time. In April 1984, net optimism was -4 (Low). In July 1985, it was +10 (Fair). Those were surveys I directed for the Bishops-Businessmen’s Conference for Human Development.

The 13 SWS surveys—then still twice a year—of Cory Aquino’s time had only two Very Highs in personal optimism. The first was a +31 in May 1986, the very first survey under the restored democracy. The second was her peak of +35 in March 1987, after the ratification of the 1987 Constitution. There were also five Highs in personal optimism in those days, making seven Highs or Very Highs out of 13 surveys. The worst point was a Mediocre +6 in July 1991. The record ended at a High +22 in April 1992.

There were two Very Highs in the 26 SWS quarterly surveys of Fidel Ramos’ time, topped by +33 in both September 1992 and June 1997. There were also 13 Highs, making 15 Highs or better out of 26 surveys. The worst point was a Mediocre +6 in October 1995, during the rice price crisis. The record ended at a High +23 in April 1998.

There were no Very Highs in personal optimism in the 12 SWS surveys in the shortened term of Joseph Estrada. There was only one High, namely a +26 in the July 1998 honeymoon. The worst point was a Very Low -13 in October 2000, during “juetenggate.” There were also three Lows, including a final 0 in December 2000.

The 43 optimism surveys of Gloria Arroyo’s lengthy time had only one Very High, namely a +35 of June 2010, just as her term was ending. Aside from that, the best point was a +29 in November 2006. There were only eight Highs, of which three happened from September 2009 to March 2010, when people were already looking forward to a new administration. There were four Lows and two Very Lows, bottoming at -13 in March 2005, equaling the worst point under Estrada. The remaining 28 optimism readings were half Fair and half Mediocre.

Geographical differences. The degree of personal optimism differs somewhat across the country. For March 2015, the net optimism rates are +39 in the National Capital Region (NCR), +40 in Balance of Luzon, +28 in the Visayas, and +33 in Mindanao. Luzonians are more optimistic than Visayans; Mindanaoans are in between.

The NCR’s record best optimism was +55 in September 1992; it hit +50 in both March 1987 and April 1997. Its worst was a Very Low -29 in March 2005. Under P-Noy it has ranged from +29 to +41.

In the Balance of Luzon, the record best was +47 in June 1997, and the record worst was -9 (Low) in May 2005. Under P-Noy, it has been below +30 only three times; the latest +40 is its best so far.

In the Visayas, the record best was +33 in September 2010, and the record worst was -35 (Very Low) in October 2000. Under P-Noy it has been at least +17 (Fair), and has gone below +20 only four times.

In Mindanao, the record best was +44 in December 2014, and the record worst was -30 (Very Low) in December 2004. Under P-Noy it was between +17 in March 2012 and the said +44 last December.

Incidentally, the government statistics on Gross Domestic Product are not broken down geographically. Only occasionally is Gross Regional Domestic Product estimated. For quarterly statistics on wellbeing in different areas of the country, the only reliable source is a private survey library like that of SWS.

Comparing the present with the past. The March 2015 SWS surveys also found 32 percent saying that their personal QOL had improved, and 26 percent saying that it had worsened, over the last 12 months. (The balance from 100 percent said that their QOL was unchanged.) The resulting +6 spread of Gainers over Losers is the second highest in Philippine survey history.

Surveys rarely find more self-declared gainers than self-declared losers. In the Philippines, it has happened only three times—in May 1986 (+2), in March 1987 (+11), and in March 2015 (+6).

SWS describes Net Gainers scores as Very High for +10 and up, High for +1 to +9, Fair for -9 to 0, Mediocre for -19 to -10, Low for -29 to -20, and Very Low for -30 and worse. Net gaining in the P-Noy administration is now High. It was Fair 12 times, Mediocre six times, and never Low or Very Low.

This compares very favorably with Net Gainers scores in earlier times—under Marcos: two Very Lows; under Cory: one Very High, one High, three Fairs, four Mediocres, two Lows and two Very Lows; under Ramos; four Fairs, 14 Mediocres, six Lows and two Very Lows; under Erap: one Mediocre, three Lows and eight Very Lows; and under Arroyo (42 surveys only): two Fairs, five Mediocres, 20 Lows and 15 Very Lows.

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Contact mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph