CANBERRA—Recent signs herald a face-off between Interior Secretary Mar Roxas and Vice President Jejomar Binay in the 2016 presidential election, which promises to return the nation to a two-party slugging contest and to wean it away from the chaotic multiparty system inherited from the 1986 People Power Revolution.
This political turning point in the electoral system, probably beneficial for Philippine democracy, should be a welcome development. It will narrow the choice to just two presidential contenders—Roxas, representing the revitalized Liberal Party, and Binay, who holds a Cabinet position in the administration of President Aquino with whom the Vice President has been at loggerheads during the past five years.
This turn of events, which indicates systemic change, crystallized last week when the President declared that Roxas remained on top of the list of those being considered by the ruling Liberal Party, which was founded by Roxas’ grandfather, President Manuel A. Roxas, in 1946. Mr. Aquino said Roxas would be the perfect successor to continue his administration’s reform agenda.
“Even if I am not a member of the Liberal Party, I believe that if there is a candidate who can continue the reforms begun by the President, it is no other than Mar Roxas,” Cavite Rep. Elpidio Barzaga Jr. said.
Roxas quickly seized on the President’s statement as a development that bolstered his electoral chances in 2016. He said he was ready to take the challenge of continuing Mr. Aquino’s “straight-path” governance, and added: “I thank the President for the trust he has given me. What he said was very clear, and I accept it wholeheartedly.”
The President has earlier said the Liberal Party would announce its standard-bearer in 2016 when he delivers his final State of the Nation Address in July. He is the party chair, and Roxas, the party president. As nominal party leader, Mr. Aquino exercises enormous influence in the selection of the LP standard-bearer in 2016, and party leaders expect the LP’s formal declaration of Roxas as its official candidate and also that the President’s endorsement would enhance Roxas’ chances.
At this stage, the electability of Roxas against Binay is still in doubt. Roxas has not yet formally declared his candidacy and the President has not yet officially or unequivocally endorsed his candidacy.
Many Liberal Party leaders are disturbed by Roxas’ low ratings in the opinion polls. Recent surveys show him lagging behind Binay and Sen. Grace Poe. But some LP congressmen point out it is possible for Roxas to catch up with the poll front-runners. They recall that in the 2010 vice presidential election, when Roxas was lagging behind Binay in the surveys by double digits, he was able to overhaul Binay’s lead when the campaign began.
The current narrowing of the field between Roxas and Binay has developed into a rematch of the 2010 presidential election—a contest in which the parties are defined and are expected to play critical roles. In a one-on-one face-off, Roxas and Binay both enjoy party machines and party coalitions not available to other candidates. According to LP leaders, “it’s really the administration party and the UNA (United Nationalist Alliance) of Binay which are capable of having candidates with the means to win.” They say that “ultimately, that will happen,” with the two men ending up standing on the road to 2016.
The face-off raises the issues of whether Mr. Aquino’s vaunted popularity would work wonders to lift Roxas’ prospects and whether Binay could overcome the damage caused by the congressional investigations into the alleged corruption that attended City Hall projects and transactions when he was mayor of Makati.
On the other hand, doubts over the President’s capacity to enhance Roxas’ prospects have been fueled by a deep plunge in his popularity ratings as a result of the Mamasapano massacre in January. The massacre of 44 members of the Philippine National Police’s Special Action Force by guerrillas linked to the Moro Islamic Liberation Front will hang like a deadweight albatross around Roxas’ neck. Instead of the presidential endorsement, he would be better off focusing on his assets and track record in public service.