Some relief for the deprived

The March 2015 national hunger rate, newly reported by Social Weather Stations (13.5 percent of families), is not only the second consecutive quarterly decline (from 17.2 percent in December 2014 and 22.0 percent in September 2014). More significantly, it is the lowest quarterly rate in the past 10 years, that is, since May 2005 when it was 12.0 percent.

Since such a low hunger rate has not occurred for a very long time, I think the new statistic is ground for guarded optimism that the favorable trend will continue (see “Is hunger getting over the hump?” Opinion, 1/31/2015).  I use the term “guarded” since the history of hunger surveys shows that a trend can change direction.

The new hunger percentage of 13.5 points consists of 11.1 points of Moderate Hunger and 2.4 points of Severe Hunger.  SWS calls “moderate” the kind of hunger experienced only once or a few times, and “severe” that which is experienced often or always in the previous three months. The frequency of hunger experience was determined according to the responses of the household heads surveyed last March 20-23 for the First Quarter 2015 Social Weather Survey.

This is involuntary hunger, specified in the survey interview as due to lack of food to eat, i.e., not due to dieting or fasting.  The last time Moderate Hunger was so low was in May 2005, when it was 8.4 percent. The last time Severe Hunger was so low was in December 2004, when it was 2.2 percent.

The March 2015 national hunger percentage of 13.5 points is the aggregate of 12.7 points in the National Capital Region, 14.3 points in the Balance of Luzon, 11.0 points in the Visayas, and 14.3 points in Mindanao. All of these are also the result of two consecutive quarterly declines in their respective areas.

The history of the hunger surveys. From July 1998, when SWS began including hunger in its quarterly national surveys, up to March 2015, there have been 73 quarterly readings of hunger. This is the world’s fastest tracking of hunger by means of nationally-representative statistical surveys.

The frequent surveying of hunger has revealed the extent of its volatility from quarter to quarter, and year to year.  The state of hunger is not something to take for granted.  It had a record low of 5.1 percent in June 2003, and a record high of 23.8 percent in March 2012.

Averaging the data for the four quarters of a year, there appear to be three episodes in the entire history from 1998 to the present.  The annual low point of the entire series was 7.0 in 2003, which was a fall from the starting annual average of 11.0 in 1998; this is the first episode.  However, from 2004 onward the annual rate rose steadily, until it reached high points of 19.9 in 2011 and 2012; this is the second episode. Then 2013 to the present is the third episode of getting over the hump, which hopefully will continue.

The need for econometrics. Discovering the factors that account best—in the statistical sense of “best”—for the favorable trend during 1998-2003, the unfavorable trend during 2004-2012, and the over-the-hump trend from 2013 to early 2015, is a challenge for careful econometric research encompassing the full history of data.  It cannot be done by quickie analysis offering ad hoc explanations for each change in trend.

To my knowledge, the most thorough econometric research on the history of hunger, as well as of self-rated poverty, is the one ongoing in the University of the Philippines School of Statistics (UPSS), under the direction of its dean, Dr. Dennis Mapa.

In the UPSS-estimated econometric models, the primary determinants of hunger, and also of poverty, are the cost of food in particular, and the cost of living in general. These models show that the impact of a price spike lingers over several quarters before dissipating completely. Thus loss of control over inflation is the main threat to the wellbeing of the poor.

The UPSS analysis shows underemployment as a secondary determinant of hunger and poverty as felt by the people. This is quite reasonable, since the official surveys measure underemployment by respondents’ declarations of need for more gainful work than what they already have.

Movements in the Gross National Product, on the other hand, have had little or no correlation to changes in economic deprivation. The most that has been detected by econometric analysis is a slight effect of the agricultural production component of the GNP.

The state of poverty. Before its hunger report, SWS had released its March 2015 poverty report, showing 51 percent of household heads rating themselves as  mahirap (poor) in general, and 36 percent rating the food they eat as mahirap.  The new self-rated poverty number is only 1 point below, but the new self-rated food poverty is 5 points below the December 2014 level.  The drop in food poverty and the drop in hunger are related, of course.

Self-rated poverty is now 31 percent in the National Capital Region, 44 percent in the Balance of Luzon, 62 percent in Mindanao, and 70 percent in the Visayas.  The median self-rated poverty thresholds, or what half of the poor say they need for a monthly home budget (i.e., not counting work-related needs like transportation), are now P15,000 in the NCR and the Balance of Luzon, and P10,000 in the Visayas and Mindanao.  These are realistic amounts.

The SWS surveys of self-rated poverty have been quarterly ever since 1992, after being semi-annual in 1986-1991. Such up-to-date tracking gives proof that aggregate economic growth is not naturally inclusive. Very deliberate policies are needed in order for the poor to get their fair share.

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