Very high optimism in 2014

The question as to whether one expects to get better off, or worse off, or stay in the same position in the future is very common in opinion polls in all countries. It is asked in all SWS surveys, with specific reference to the respondent’s expected quality of life (uri ng pamumuhay) in the next 12 months. National surveys on personal optimism and pessimism from 1984 to the present—annual in 1984-85, semiannual in 1986-91, and quarterly since 1992—have been reported regularly, and are archived for public use.

Yesterday, SWS reported 41 percent of Filipino adults as optimistic and only 6 percent as pessimistic about their quality of life (QOL), in its national survey of Nov. 27-Dec. 1, 2014; the balance expected their QOL to stay the same (“Outlook most optimistic in over a year,” BusinessWorld, 2/20/2015). (By the way, fourth-quarter surveys have no inherent “holiday effect,” contrary to the facile comments of those unfamiliar with the historical data.)

Net Personal Optimism. The results are summarized by the concept of Net Personal Optimism (NPO), the optimistic percentage minus the pessimistic percentage, or 41 – 6 = +35 in the last survey. This Very High +35 ties the previous peaks of President Noynoy Aquino in November 2010 and September 2013.

The SWS terminology is Very High for +30 and up, High for +20 to +29, Fair for +10 to +19, Mediocre for +1 to +9, Low for -9 to 0, and Very Low for -10 and lower, based on experience.

In the 13 surveys in the time of President Cory Aquino, NPO ranged between a Very High +35 in March 1987 and a Mediocre +7 in October 1987. The sudden drop from March to October in 1987 was obviously due to the military coup attempt of August 1987. NPO ended at a High +22 in April 1992.

The surveys have been quarterly ever since the time of President Fidel Ramos. In FVR’s case, NPO peaked twice at a Very High +33, in his honeymoon survey of September 1992 and again in June 1997. Its low point was a Mediocre +6 in October 1995, at the height of the rice price crisis. It ended at a High +23 in April 1998.

In the time of President Joseph Estrada, NPO peaked at a High +26 in his honeymoon in July 1998. It was a Mediocre +4 and +5 in March and July 2000, respectively, in his “all-out war” against the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. It slumped as far down as a Very Low -13 in September 2000, during “Juetenggate,” and ended at a Low 0 in December 2000.

The highest NPO in the nine-year stretch of President Gloria Arroyo was +29 in November 2006. I do not attribute the historic NPO peak of +36 in June 2010 to her, since it was at the end of her term, when Filipinos were raring for change. The NPO bottom was a Very Low -13 in March 2005, just before the “Hello Garci” scandal broke out.

Under P-Noy, NPO thus far has always been High or else Very High. In the first three quarters this year, NPO was +29, +31, and +30, respectively, which give an average of +31.2 for all of 2014. The earlier annual averages were +33.5 in 2010 (the second half), +27.5 in 2011, +28.5 in 2012, and +32.0 in 2013. The weakest point was a +24—classified as High—in March 2011. Thus, personal optimism during the P-Noy years has far outstripped that under all his predecessors.

The December 2014 survey found personal optimism related to socioeconomic status and education. NPO was +40 among the middle-to-upper ABCs, +36 among the masa or Ds, and +31 among the very poor Es. It was +30 among elementary school dropouts, +33 among high school dropouts, +37 among high school graduates, and +41 among college graduates.

Economic deprivation is also relevant. NPO was +30 among the Self-rated Poor, +38 among the Self-rated Borderline, and +41 among the Self-rated Not Poor. It was +25 among those in Severe Hunger (i.e., experienced it often or always in the past three months), +29 among those in Moderate Hunger (experienced it once or a few times), and +36 among those who suffered no hunger. Thus, optimism also prevails among the poor and the hungry, but it would be even higher if their deprivation were lessened.

Optimism about the economy. Surveys often ask, separately, if the respondent thinks that the economy will improve, or worsen, or stay the same over the next 12 months. The common outcome, everywhere, is that people are more optimistic about their own personal prospects than about the economy in general—even cheerful about the former and gloomy about the latter, at the same time.

In the December 2014 SWS survey, 31 percent were optimistic, and 15 percent were pessimistic, about general economic prospects in the next year. This gives a Net Economic Optimism (NEO) score of 31 – 15 = +16, which we call Very High. (For NEO, SWS uses Very High for +10 or more, High for +1 to +9, Fair for -9 to 0, Mediocre for -19 to -10, Low for -29 to -20, and Very Low for -30 or less.)

In the first to third quarters of 2014, NEO was +9, +2, and +11 respectively. Combined with the December round, the average NEO for 2014 is +9.5 or just about Very High. NEO has been positive in all 19 surveys since June 2010, whereas it was positive in Estrada’s time in only 2 of 11 surveys, and in GMA’s time (not counting June 2010) in only 5 of 36 surveys. (SWS was not yet probing into Economic Optimism in the times of Cory Aquino and FVR.)

How is the Mamasapano incident affecting either personal or economic optimism? Let us see what the next Social Weather Survey will find.

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Contact mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph. I thank Michael Laxamana of SWS for special tabulations used in this piece.